Mid December and sports plays are starting to pick up a bit.

Mid December and sports plays are starting to pick up a bit.

Betting is picking up as we are almost 10 days into December and it’s about the time that sides start kicking in.

Thursday we had 4 one unit plays and went 2-2 for +.52 units. In the NHL we went 1-1 winning with Colorado +162 and losing with New Jersey +149. In the NBA we had a near miss losing with Denver +5.5 and in college hoops, we had an easy win with Iowa +6 winning by 14 78-64.

Today so far I have sent out no plays.

Here is an email I would like to share regarding how to figure out whether to take a hockey play if the line is different than what I put out.

“Good afternoon Rick,

Curious about your take on wagering on your hockey picks if the same line is unavailable but a slightly worse one is available.  Is there a little leeway where you’d still make the same wager with a slightly worse line?  In other words, using today’s NJ Devils line; you said it’s a one unit play at +149.  I can get it at +145.  Is that a play you would still make?  Thanks.

PS – a brief story that helps prove the point you repeat over and over and over again.  I’ve been following you for about three years now and while it was fairly tough at first, I pretty quickly came to accept and depend on the 2.5% of bankroll wagering strategy, regardless of the swings.  I have been extremely faithful to that strategy, with the exception of some fun oddball plays here and there where I know I’m taking the worst of it and am dropping my wager to about 1% of bankroll.  With that said, on election day this year I decided that I knew more than the markets and that even though she was priced as a favorite, there was still value in selecting her.  I ended up going after the “free” money, forgetting all about your disciplined strategy, and blowing 68% of my bankroll on one losing wager.  Frustrating to say the least.  My bankroll is for entertainment only, so it didn’t hurt me in a “real world” financial sense, but I sure learned my lesson.  Never again!  Take care.”

My response:

“The way to decide what line to take is to look at the lines from say 10 books that have 10c lines. If the line is above the lowest of the lines then it’s fine to take it. You will find there is a lot of leeway and a 4c difference will almost always a bet.

I always use pinnacle when I put the lines out. But you can look at any number of books that have 10c lines to compare with.”

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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