The first half of the MLB season is now behind us. The Plays are a small loser (I will recap below). We started out on the downswing …had a nice recovery until about 2 weeks ago…then another downswing taking us to a small loser for the 1st half of the season.
Looking over the plays:
The Mainstay of baseball Strategies is the subset of games that are Home Dogs where the public is =or< 30% on the Home Dog. Handicapping this subset of games is as solid as it gets for betting sports. I can almost bet it will show a profit at the end of the year ...year end and year out. Saying that.....of course you have to have a 10c line and have some handicapping skills that will help you find value in this subset. Tinkerer that I am....I have two models in baseball I use to find value. If they both agree on the game I then put it out as a 1 unit plays. The half unit plays are simply where 1 model confirms value. Once I find a model confirming value...I use the game as a half unit play even if the other model points to the other side. Most of the time the other model is neutral. The first half of the season here are the results: 1 Unit Plays Home Dog <150 4-5 +0.00 1/2 Unit plays Home Dog (<150) 21-23 +1.41 Not earth shattering to say the least. But for me success is +5 to +10 units for the season. Its a grind obviously with not a lot of plays. But again the reliability of the method is solid year after year. Early on in the season I had a few other subset of games that I used for plays. I have discarded those a few months ago to where now the only plays are the above. On to the Setups: First....I use both my models with the various setups. In addition I have included two more models to help come up with these setups. The one variable that is lacking from the plays is public sentiment. So....these are pure handicapping plays with no help from what the public is doing. As I have said in the past these types of handicapping methods are the toughest since you are attempting to out handicap the books. Saying that I want to list the models that not only backtested well but also have done well the first half of the season (out of sample testing) I will list them in the order of what backtested the best: 1. Home Fav <-150 2. Totals B Under 3. Away Dog C These are the setups that I would expect based upon backtesting along with the out of sample testing the first half of the season to have a solid EV. Saying that I am going to add them as half unit plays for the 2nd half of the season. With the caveat....that I feel it takes a good full season of out of sample testing. But if the above 3 produce solid results the 2nd half of the season...they will be 1 unit plays next year. Another setup that backtested well...but has been about breakeven this season is the Home Picks. I will still put them out as tracking setups but not as plays. The A and B road dog setups have been a real disappointment the 1st half of the season. These are road dogs = or <+150. They produce a lot of plays but so far have produced not much in return...a very small profit. I will keep them as setups the 2nd half of the season. One thing to notice is that road favorites are not included in any of the setups as is Home Fav -150 or Greater. I have found no method that has produced positive ev to any of these subset of games. Thats the breakdown of the models. If anyone has any questions about these ask away. I am optimistic for a successful 2nd half of the season with the caveat that typically in baseball the 2nd half is much more difficult to handicap then the first half of the season. RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.com Twitter: rickjsportplays Twitter: rickjswingtrade