One MLB game tonight:
Betting is 46% on the home Favorite with the line moving from -148 to -167. That is a pretty large move contrary to the % of the betting on the dog. Models slightly favor Baltimore at this price. Variables slightly favor Toronto. Public betting is very slightly favoring Toronto. These playoff games have very limited opportunities to find positive EV situations as the teams have played quite a few games by playoff time. The only ev that you usually can find is if the line moves place you into a positive ev situation. Even though we have a large line move here we are quite a bit away from this game having any value. So I am passing on the game.
For those of you that weathered the entire season for MLB and methodically followed the appropriate bet sizing, you were rewarded with adding 6.33 units to your bankroll. We started the season with a nice run and then immediately following that had our largest drawdown of the season. Then it was back and forth until Sept when we had a very nice run putting us 11 units to the plus side. Then we faded a bit into the final days of the season.
A few things to note. One unit plays were +20.74 units on 177 plays. Also, 1/2 unit totals were +5.02 units on 31 plays. It was the 1/2 unit plays that were costly losing 19.412 units on 135 plays.
As I explained the difference between 1 unit and 1/2 unit plays are the real time testing. 1 unit plays had 2 years of positive real-time testing while 1/2 unit plays had 1 year. The 1/2 unit plays that failed this season have been dropped from consideration for the next season.
In addition, it was about 6 weeks into the season that I added an additional filter to my MLB handicapping on sides. It showed a remarkable improvement in results going forward after adding this filter.
The end result is that MLB not only had a profit this season but also shows a lot of promise heading into 2017.
Yesterday we had no plays, however, my fifth pick in the Hilton NFL super contest with the Giants +4.5 never had a chance. That gave me a 3-2 weekend for contest picks. And brought my contest record to 13-7 through week 4. In addition, my 1 unit plays in the NFL this season is 7-2.
So far I have sent on a 1 unit play on college football for week 6.
Things are going to get a bit slower now that baseball is winding down. So now would be an excellent opportunity to ask any questions you have been thinking about asking.
MLB playoffs begin tonight and I will be sending out not only plays but any Big Line Moves that develop. In addition, I will most likely be commenting on the games here on the site if I see anything noteworthy.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks