May is behind us so we have two months now of MLB using the new MLB data base.
And as expected, there are bright spots and not so bright spots:)
First lets look at the Overnight Sides:
In April:
Sides: 28-22 +9.02 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +9.02)
50 plays, top to bottom swing of 13.52 units and we ended up +9.02 Units for the month. Cannot ask much more from a new data base then that:)
In May:
Sides: 21-26 -.14 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.93 to +3.21)
47 Plays for -.14 units with a top to bottom swing of 8.14 units.
The top to bottom swing remained tame, the number of plays about the same, but we treaded water in May.
Putting the two months together:
Sides: 50-48 +9.83 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +12.18)
98 plays, +9.83 units won, and a top to bottom swing of 16.68 units
You will note first that the two months do not add up:) That is a result of my haphazard cross checking. I typically do this manually, and very early in the morning.
So the numbers are going to be off a bit, and the time going back to cross check everything is not worth it.
But the tenor of the results for the first two months is solid. The ROI is 10% which I will take on any method I have.
The other metric I check is how often do we beat the closing line. Remember these are put out the day before.
In April:
Sides line bet to closing line : 31-17 241 +5.02 better than closing line per game
A 64.5% rate of beating the closing line at the rate of 5.02 per game. That is a solid rate but I would like to see the difference higher.
In May:
Sides line bet to closing line : 29-13-5 158 +3.36 better than closing line per game
In May we went down to 55% with a rate of 3.36. So both the % of beating the closing line and the rate declined. Which might account for the decrease in units won.
But most likely you cannot draw any conclusions from that.
Bottom line: Sides is acting similar to my backtests. And that is a good thing. If this keeps up we have a viable system for next year on the overnight Sides.
That brings us to the overnight totals:(
April: Totals 1-5 -4.40
May: Totals 6-11 -6.00
Not a good sign so far on these. And this is in spite of the fact that we beat the closing total line 16-1-6!!!
So, bottom line, its a bit early to tell on the overnight totals. The beating the closing line is a good sign the units lost is not.
Lets see what June brings us on these.
Remember MLB is FREE!!! The use of the new database made me decide it would not be right to charge subscribers as its an unproven real time database I am using. So I made my entire email list along with my Slack channels free for those that wanted to follow along this MLB season. All subscribers were put on pause until the beginning of the NCAA FB Season.
Then it will be back to normal for subscriptions.
During the free MLB season you get not only access to all my plays which include MLB along with any other sport during that time, but also my slack channels.
These were a new addition the last few years. They give you the opportunity to provide input, discussion, ask questions and also if you have an interest follow my stock and option trading.
I have been trading for many years. My trading is as methodical as my handicapping. I include option trades, mean reversion trades , swing trades, income trades with an approach to medium term trading. On occasion I will take an intraday trade.
The one new trading technique I now use every week is my two day short put sale. I developed this during the Covid lockdowns and it has turned out to be one of my most successful trading techniques.
I have posted 438 trades, with a win rate of 94.29% and a profit factor of 2.40. Until recently the drawdowns have been tame. However, trade 392 brought us our biggest drawdown, and we have regained 80% of the drawdown since then. Our 40-0 run has helped:)
These are put out on Thursday shortly after the market open, and expire Friday after the close. The idea is to sell premiums for income with a 2 day hold.
I have a screen I have developed, along with other parameters I use , both fundamental and technical, to decide where there is value in the premiums, with limited risk.
It is easy to get on board right now with us as I have made everything FREE until the first game of the NCAA FB season starts. Then its back to the $49.00 a month for everything. Which compared to other subscriptions services is a steal:)
As always I am available for questions. You need just email me at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. And if you wish to sign up for the free MLB season, all you need do is make that request at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I will invite you to both of my slack channels and put you on the email list.
Hope to see you join us.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
