April is now behind us so its time to see how my new database is working out in MLB.
April numbers are:
Sides: 28-22 +9.02 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +9.02)
Totals 1-5 -4.40 (Top to bottom swing ….not enough games)
MLB Regular Plays started 4/29
Sides : 0-2 -2.00
Season to date combined: +2.62
Sides line bet to closing line : 31-17 241 +5.02 better than closing line per game
Totals line bet to closing line: 4-0-2
A lot to digest here but lets go through this and see what we can figure out:)
First after the smoke cleared we were +2.62 units for the month of April.
That included: Overnight Sides 28-22 +9.02 Units
Overnight Totals 1-5 -4.40 Units
Regular plays( Plays made during the day of the game) 0-2 -2.0 Units
Some things to note of significance:
- Top to bottom swings on the overnight sides was -4.5 to +9.02 Units. We finished on the high side of this range.
- While overnight totals were 1-5 the number beat the closing number 4-0-2
- Overnight Sides beat the closing number 31-17 or 64.5%. As long as we keep this up I suspect these overnight sides will be
profitable for the season.
I received some emails regarding the lack of NBA plays. There has not been anything I could see worth betting on. As you know I need three things to line up to consider a game a play. 1. Model Edge 2. Variable Edge 3. Public % Edge
The new MLB models are looking fine. There is reason to be optimistic this season as you never know when you switch up things with entirely new models.
But so far with these hitting almost 65% beating the closing line, and a nice 9 unit gain on overnight sides, it appears we are on the right track
But it is only the end of April. MLB is a grueling season. Top to bottom swings can be 30 or 40 units in a typical season. So we will see:)
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