It has been a very long haul of no sports but finally, MLB starts on Wednesday!
As you know I suspended all accounts during the forced offseason. On the 23rd all accounts will be made active. You will be in the exact same spot in your subscription you were in when they were suspended.
I will be putting out overnights on Sides and Totals in MLB , early afternoon for the next days games. These have been by far the best money maker in MLB since I started. They have produced winning MLB seasons since I have begun handicapping them.
We went from typically a mundane MLB season and a sport that was around breakeven each year to a sport that now produces 15 to 30 units a year in profit.
You can signup for the before MLB starts by going to the drop-down menu on the first page of the website. This gives you:
- All plays in any sport that is covered during your subscription.
- Most of my trades made via Slack in realtime. These include short put sales made typically on Thursday for a 2-day hold, Swing trades, and other medium-term trades I take from time to time.
- Access to me virtually anytime for questions about handicapping and trading, via slack, email, twitter or skype
- I send my trades out via email, Slack, Skype, and SMS.
The cost is 49.00 a month. Compared to other handicapping services that charge over four figures for 1 sport and cannot compare to my results this is very inexpensive. In addition, you are free to drop your subscription at any time.
MLB is a 60 game regular season, but I am going to continue my 50% back if we have a losing regular-season special. You just need to be subscribed from day 1 to day 60 to qualify. I started this when I started handicapping overnights. So far have not had to refund any money:) All winning seasons!!!
If anyone has any questions about the above just send me an email to [email protected] But, it will be business as usual starting 7/23rd.
I have gotten a lot of questions regarding how the political climate might affect the handicapping. All I can say right now is it is an unknown. Last year there was no bias you could incorporate into your handicapping that I could find to take advantage of it. This year it seems the political climate has gotten much worse, but still, you would be shooting in the dark to try to take advantage of this from a handicapping standpoint.
The very worst I can see regarding this is it might create a bit more randomness. And I use the word might. The net effect of this would be variance increasing. So, if it were me I would be a bit more conservative in my money management. If I were using 2.5% of my bankroll in my bet sizing, then lower it .5%. So whatever % you planned to use this season, cut 1/4 to 1/2 % from the bet size. That should be a conservative enough approach.
Its been a while since I have written about the political odds landscape. Since then things have changed a bit. Also, some of the House pairings are out now.
I have long been saying the best wager of 2020 is going to be fading the “dirty 30”. (Dems in House seats where Trump won the general in 2016). Some of those matchups are now out and here are my wagers.
GA-16 29/71 price now 23/77 -6
ME 02 51/49 price now 47/53 -4
IA-01 32/68 price now 32/68 0
SC -01 54/46 price now 53/47 -1
NY-11 36/64 price now 33/67 -3
NJ -03 34/66 price now 32/68 -2
IA-02 29/61 price now 19/91 -10
So of the 30 only 7 matchups have been posted. I will be fading each one as they are posted. The line has moved against me in almost everyone 🙂 So if your planning on taking these you will be getting a better price. I am not going to cherry-pick but just fade all 30. As expected in most cases you are getting around 2 to 1. I expect that will continue at least until we get a bit closer to the election when these races should tighten up a lot. My expectation is to win at least 50% of these.
Now let’s look at the rest of the political odds:
Biden 92/8 +1 Pt
Clinton 5/95 No Change
It’s looking more and more like it’s going to be Biden. Since I last posted the only person that is above 1 Pt is Clinton. I still have a lingering feeling that the Dems will dump Biden. But its a real longshot right now.
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 37/63 -13 Pts
Rice 28/72 +19 Pts
Duckworth 12/88 No Change
Warren 8/92 No Change
Demings 8/92 -6 Pts
Harris has dropped a lot, from the front runner to now Susan Rice making a run at her. This reflects the Obama/Clinton influence in the Democrat party. They would love nothing better than Rice in as President. How this washes out still is a mystery. But typically whoever the party leaders want will get the nomination. It will not be up to the grassroots of the party.
Trump 38/62 -1 Pts I took Trump at 45/55.
Biden 61/39 +2Pts
I think Trump getting 3 to 2 is an excellent wager. Starting to get as good as the dirty 30 wagers in terms of equity.
There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts. As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.
The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins 2. He is costing the establishment a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.
I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:) Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 64/36 -1 Pts
Again I believe the value is on the Republicans, It looks like a repeat of 2016 to me with the polling.
Control of the House:
87/13 Democrats: +1 Pts
I took 4 to 1 and now staring at 6 to 1. Lots of EV in getting 6 to 1 here. I may end up wagering more at this price. Another good wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
61/39 in favor of the Democrats +1 Pts
I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda. The better wager to me is getting 6 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House.
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 96/4 -1 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is looking grim for my wager. Although the technical recession should be very short-lived.
A new line popped up that is interesting:
Will Kanye run in 2020 95/5
I do not think you can wager on this market the way the rules are. There is a lot of play in the interpretation of what constitutes running:) If the rules were hard and fast I would easily bet against this. Sure he has announced he is running, but with Kayne, that can change on a dime. There needs to be a date certain in the wager. That would make it easier to wager on.
That pretty much sums it up for this post. I will try to post some market comments and go through my short put sales tomorrow before the open. This has been a very profitable endeavor since I started it, as you will see in my next post.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks