On Saturday we had one 1/2 unit play in MLB.
Minn +135 won 4-1. In addition, we had four 1/2 unit plays that predicted the line move 2-2.
Today so far I have sent out no plays and 2 big move games.
I received a few emails this morning that should give a bit of insight:
“Rick,
I’m hoping you can quell my curiosity as to why yesterdays Phillies game was not a play with the same pitchers going on Friday when the game was rained out as a 1-unit play.”
My Response:
“I went over the last two days to see why I did not have Phil as a play on Sat, as you are correct, logically there are very few reasons that this could occur.
The most obvious reason is the reason that Phil was not a play. Human Error:)
Typically when there are pitching changes I only rehandicap the game if I have the time to do so. I spend at least 2 hours a day handicapping on the assumption that the listed starting pitchers are going.
In Wash Phil, the overnight pitchers for Saturday were Velasquez and Gonzalez. That was how I handicapped the game. When I saw there was a pitching change I disregarded my results.
If I would have noticed that the same pitchers from the day before went Sat It would have been very easy. But, it would be by chance if I noticed that as I handicap each day in a vacuum of who the pitchers were the day before as it is only significant in rare instances where a previous day’s pitcher was a lefty. But those situations come up rarely.
So, the bottom line is I just did not handicap the game again with the new pitchers.
Usually, when that happens you would expect Phil to win 10-0! But we saved a unit. I would like to attribute that to skill but unfortunately, I do not think I could sell that:)
Thanks for pointing that out. I always like to go back and answer questions about things that have occurred that make no sense. Keeps me on my toes.”
And one more:
“I thought that a 1/2 unit play was when 2 of the 3 signals points to one team yet several times, last night included, you send out that email showing one side with 2 signals pointing to them along with the 3rd being neutral yet the game is still not a 1/2 unit play. I believe it happened last night with either Pittsburgh or Detroit (possibly both). What is the reasoning on why some games that check off 2 boxes are a 1/2 unit play and others are not?”
My Response:
“The 2 out of 3 applied to leans. Once I switched to 1/2 unit plays we are back to what I used last year for 1/2 unit plays with the exception of:
1The methods that failed last year have been jettisoned
2 I included an additional screen
So 1/2 unit plays are the plays that have only been exposed to real time for 1 year. But also pass the additional screening requirements.
This additional screen has been very good at eliminating negative EV plays.”
Let me mention that both questions are excellent. I welcome all questions as it clears up many things that come up day to day that on their surface might look illogical but after hearing an explanation tends to made sense. Not always but I would say most of the time:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
