On Saturday we had 4 plays and went 1-3 for -2.11 Units sports betting MLB. Our Total was an early winner and our sides went 0-3. That brings us to +18.67 Units Season to date in MLB.
Our Bet or Pass Totals went 3-0 for +3.05 UNITS.
Today we have 2 plays pending and also have 3 Bet or Pass Totals pending.
I have been receiving quite a few emails lately regarding my handicapping techniques and how they apply to the NFL.
I have been posting my plays for almost 15 years now. For a very long time, the NFL was as close to the nuts as one could find for betting sports.
As you know I use a contrarian approach to sports betting, while also using models and variables to undercover value wagering on sports.
Contrarian works well sports betting the NFL because in no other sport do you get as clear an idea of where the public is on the game. Afterall, everyone wagers on the NFL:)
Over the years things have changed a bit. What was once the nuts has not morphed into a positive EV. I used to wager on 10 pt dogs and could almost count on the side not only covering but in many cases winning the game!
Not anymore:) More and more bettors have become aware of contrarian sports betting.
This has 2 effects on wagering in the NFL.
1. The % numbers are not as predictive as they used to be
2. The timing of your wager is essential.
As to # 2, it used to be if you were a contrarian bettor you could wait until game time and count on getting the best line possible, as the bettors would push the lineup.
Now, The contrarian bettors have made it essential to figure out the appropriate time to bet on the game. Generally you can wait in the NFL until about 2 days before game time. Sometimes the day before. After that, the contrarian bettors start pulling the trigger and you will see the line move back.
Once you understand the above it makes it a bit easier wagering on the NFL. But still, Its no cakewalk like it used to be:)
For MLB baseball today my free game breakdown is NYY/Boston
8:05 PM 48% 927 NYY-M Tanaka 9o-110 9u-109
a 52% 928 BOS-D Price (L) -132/+122 -119/+110
NYY Edge 15+
Variable Edge No Edge
Public % Edge No Edge
No much on this game, only the models pointing to NYY. I like to see all 3 pointing toward a side. And even then I have several other filters I use before wagering on a game.
I do the same for Football.
I give this breakdown for every game of the day in MLB. You will not find better models anywhere in MLB.
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RickJ’s Handicapping Picks