12:15 Update
For those of you that have sent me emails regarding the NFL Hilton Contest and for those that are still thinking about it I will not be participating this season. The Westgate has decided to charge an administrative fee of 8%. So what went from a positive EV tournament with prestige and historical significance is now just another of the grind outs the casinos have to take people’s money.
Now perhaps if you are going to call it an administrative fee .5% , 1% or maybe 2% is a typical administrative fee. But it’s sort of an insult to call it that and charge 8%. Not sort of it is an insult.
In any event, it does not do any good to complain. It is what it is and they have every right to charge whatever they wish. It just makes my decision easy.
However, I will still be posting my top 5 for subscribers along with my plays.
It’s a historical shift and a sad one as the Hilton Handicapping Contest was the prestige event of the year for NFL Handicappers and had a long History for Las Vegas.
RickJ
Despite a full schedule of MLB games on Saturday I could only muster up one 1/2 unit play but it was an easy winner. Baltimore Under 9.5-106 won 5-2.
We also had two big move games on Saturday:
Tampa -103
Seattle +128
The closing line :
Tampa -125
Seattle +109
Both games we had nice moves are way. Both could have been played for middles that moves were that large. On Seattle, you could have had a 10c freeroll and on Tampa a 12c freeroll.
Not that you should have taken them but it illustrates the value these can be if you’re using them as a value filter on your own handicapping.
It’s final. I will be entering the NFL Hilton contest again this season. I have come very close several times. One year I was in 3rd going into the last few weeks. But then they only paid the top 20 and I faded and just missed. The 20 out of almost 1,000 entrants. Now they have started paying more places which although it reduces the award size it changes the dynamics a bit.
So if you would like to be considered for being a participant in the NFL Hilton contest send me an email with the amount you wish to give. $1,000 is open of the $1500 as I will be taking 1/3 myself of the entry.
Once I decide who is interested and for how much I will decide who to accept. It’s not going to be based upon first come first serve but will be based on convenience. Also, remember you get dollar for dollar for you % buyin. No Vig taken out by me. I just do not care to invest the entire 1500 myself cheapskate that I am:) Also I get asked about income tax consequences in the event we cash. Each person contributing will need to sign an agreement that not only shows their % interest in the entry but also that they are responsible for their part of any income taxes.
Ok, that is out of the way. I do not expect changing my mind on this. Seems I go through this every year at least the last several years.
Now I am going to put out a controversial play. This in no way shows what my position is on the two presidential candidates. I believe there is substantial value on the Republicans winning the presidency this year. Now that the Vice President picks are out-of-the-way it looks to me that the line should be closer to even money.
The 2/1 line is from Paddy Power which has the line now at Democrat 4/11 Republican 2/1. That’s quite a spread which is why it’s difficult to find value in betting politics. Without getting into the various factors I have considered as they are many. But one of the considerations with is not nominal is the analysis by Nate Sliver : http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Nate Sliver : http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
His evaluation is updated real-time as different polling is revealed. Right now he has the line at 58.3/41.7. That’s quite an overlay if you can get 2/1.
So my play is Republicans to win the Presidency getting 2/1.
Finally, again I am an Independent. I in no way am indicating my opinion on who to vote for or who I am voting for. This is a handicapping site and If I believe there is value I typically post it regardless of where it comes from. I have put out several Oscar plays over the years both of which were easy winners. If my memory is correct the two I posted were Natalie Portman Best Actress for “The Black Swan” I put that out before the nominations were disclosed and before Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards. The 2nd was Best Supporting Actor in “Million Dollar Baby” on Morgan Freeman.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
