Sunday we went 1-1 on our College basket 1/2 unit plays and lost our 1 unit play on K.C +6. Also I went 2-3 in the Hilton picks.
When things start going wrong you get all types of beats. KC was a perfect example. KC had over 500 yards total offense with 350 rushing! And they were at home getting 6. Not only did they lose the game but did not cover! I think I read somewhere that this is the only occasion in NFL history that a team had over 350 yards rushing at home and lost the game.
We had every chance to win the wager but the end game was very cruel to us. I do not wish to rehash the ending but suffice it to say one of the benefits of not playing poker now is I did not have to hear the cheering when Indy scored the touchdown at the end on a 3rd and 7 play. After all the public was over 80% on Indy.
So….Sunday was just another day in the continuation of a rather long disappointing downswing. Am I discouraged …not one bit. I have been gambling long enough to know that these periods come and go. Fortunately I am not a manic depressive type:) But I tend to go through these swings in a matter of fact manner.
To give you an idea…most of the time….if I am playing poker you cannot tell except for the chips perhaps whether I am up 30 big bets or down 30 big bets. I always considered a session of poker just part of the lifetime longer session.
I remember when I was down about 35 big bets playing limit Omaha 8 in about a 2 hr period. When the person next to me gave me a look…like how much are you going to lose before you quit.
He was one of the few Omaha 8 players I know you could carry on any type of intellectual conversation with…and I commented what is the difference whether you lose 100 big bets in one session or a two week period. His only comment was that when he gets 30 big bets loser he gets mad.
The point of all this is part of the gambling experience is how you approach it. Many approach it in a very unsophisticated manner letting every loss plunge them into dispair and every win bring them to the heights of ecstasy.
If you approach it in this manner it will wear you out and take its toll on you. If you approach it the way I do….every day is just another day …some you win and some you do not. But the idea is….to have fun and take it for what it really is…a mental exercise.
The reason I can do this is…1. I bet for fun 2. I for the most part have quite a bit of discipline. 3. I have methods I use that take away most of the guess work.
Does this make it any easier to win…perhaps perhaps not…but more importantly it prevents me from tilting or plunging and helps me keep my perspective.
Now…onto tonight College football game:
The public is on Fresno 69%. The line on Pinnacle opened at -10.5 and is now -11.5-110. On Cris however it opened at -12.5 and is now -11.5. A RLM on Cris.
Everything I look at other then the RLM on Cris points to Fresno tonight. Both my models have it over a two touchdown game. In addition another model I look at that is 5-1 on the bowl games so far points to Fresno.
If it wasn’t for the RLM on Cris I would be betting 1/2 Unit on Fresno…but I am going to give it some respect and pass on the game.