“You wrote: “I think they (Jacksonville) are a team you just have to rule out betting on this season.”
I think that’s a ridiculous comment that I’d expect more from an RJ Bell-type than you. Yes, they are terrible. But, a certain number every game would make them +EV.”
Well….its my opinion:) The problem is there are enough “sharp bettors” out there that there is a good chance that the line makers may not even come close to a number for jacksonville that produces a positive ev to the juice. Every game they play is going to look like a sharp bettors dream!
Now thats the way I look at it. So far in every game they have played this year they did not come close to covering….and they all were sharp bettor sides. Now if they started making the line +28 perhaps then my opinion might change!
New Orleans has 71% of the public on them and the line opened at -6 and is now -7+102 on Pinnacle. On Cris the open was -5.5 and is now -6.5-120.
My models show New Orleans to be slightly overvalued. Everything else I look at points to a toss up. There are some Very strong Variables that point to New Orleans to counter that is the public , Its in the Hilton top 5 and my models show them to be a bit over valued…so a clear cut coin toss for me….I pass.
Sunday we won both our 1 unit plays in the NFL with Cleveland and Buffalo winning the games as dogs. Our tracking setups went 0-2 with Jacksonville never having a chance. I think they are a team you just have to rule out betting on this season. Also our Road Dog A tracking setup on San diego lost.
But the good news is the 2nd half of the season in baseball is finally over. And it could not have been any worse this year.
But the playoffs provide opportunity that the regular season does not in that their are Positive Ev setups that are not available in the regular season.
With that in mind all Baseball post season plays will be 1 unit plays.
Monday MLB Play
981 -D Price
982 TEX-M Perez +107
One Caveat although these plays have been strong positive Ev in the past its no slam dunk for 1 post season as the number of games wagered on will be very small compared to the sample.
I will have some comments later today on tonights NFL Game.
Good Luck Today