Sunday we lost our 1 unit play on Tenn +3.5 and they were never in the game. They were scoreless going into the 4th quarter and then started to get their offense going but it was too late. Our lean on the Jets +3.5 covered in OT as they won the game beating New England.
My Hilton picks for Sunday went 2-1 bringing me to 2-2 for the weekend with Minn +3.5 left for this evening.
Also note that the Hilton Contest top 5 had another stellar week going 1-4. If you faded the top 5 this year you would be right now trying to find a way to spend all the money you made….or look for a juicy higher limit poker game!
Looking at tonight’s NFL game. The public is on the Giants 70%. On pinnacle the line opened at -2.5 -117 and is now -3.5 +104. On Cris -3 -107 to -3.5 -105. My models show the giants to be over valued quite a bit. However the game so far is not a play or anything else for me tonight as their are some variables that point to the giants. However the bulk of what I look at points to Minn…especially getting the hook off of 3.
Its an interesting game looking at it from a different perspective. The giants are 0-6 going into this game. Typically the public you would think the public would be fading an 0-6 team or at least neutral…but here they are 70% on on 0-6 team. Thats a lot of faith in the giants covering 3.5!
Not much else going on today. Most likely no plays in the NHL. I have reconsidered my betting in the NHL this season and tightened my parameters for a play quite a bit. The rule change in the NHL that is supposed to produce more scoring this year might effect my models as one of my variables is the total on the game.
I will update if anything changes.
Good Luck today