One NFL Game tonight. Green Bay has 69% of the public betting on them. The line opened at -11 and is now -9.5 on Pinnacle and Cris. Everything I look at points to chicago tonight with the exception of 1 variable that I do not fade as a play. My models show Green Bay to be quite a bit overvalued however much of that is due to cutler being out. With the reverse line move I suspect that the books over compensated for the injury. I am going to pass on the game tonight…However it would be either Chicago or pass.
Also the Bovada indicator is not as strong as it was on some of the games sunday. I would of thought the line would be -11 or -12 on Bovada and it is only 10. As I mentioned a few days ago Bovada is a nice confirmation of where the public is on the game.
Nothing in the NHL and most likely nothing in the NBA tonight.
Sunday we won our 1 unit play in the NBA on Washington +13 as they lost by 10 and covered.
In the NFL no plays but tracking setups went 2-1 and leans 1-0.
Also Hilton picks went 4-1 with Pitt letting me down for a 5-0 day.
Well I am at the high point in my record on Hilton picks at 52.5%. Half of the season left and have to get over 60% to cash. After my disastrous first 3 weeks, 4-10-1 I am fortunate to be in this position at the half way point. All I need now is a monster rush to push over 60%. Although if the top 5 keep going 1-4 every week maybe 52.5% could win it:)
Not much to pick from today. Nothing in the NHL. Maybe a play tonight in the NBA.
I will have some comments a bit later regarding the Monday night football game.
“Houston is getting 28% public but is the number one hilton pick….interesting…seems like a major contradiction”
I agree…but in sports betting that is what you have to deal with. Contradictions. Then you have to put all the pieces together into some type of logical order to see where ev might be.
Thats why for me to bet a game..all the pieces need to fit together in an orderly manner with no forcing to get a play. So my order of things…Plays, Tracking setups, leans.
I will update later this afternoon.