Well……it was a bloodbath for the “smart money”. The public made
a killing with the chalks winning in a cakewalk. Most were laughers.
The day can be summarized in the Miami game. What looked like an easy
win turned into a nightmare ending and another win for the public…no
Even though I got murdered in my contest picks 1-3 Hilton and 0-4 stations..
I have tonight to recoup a win with Washington. Again the public is pounding
Philadelphia. And the line is moving to where you can get +8 at some books.
If they public keeps pounding phil who knows where the line will end up…If it gets to +8.5 or 9 I will probably pull the trigger on Washington tonight. Can it be
another easy win for the public…we will see.
The good news is I had no leans or plays in the nfl sunday and also we won our nhl play and lost our nhl lean for a +.20 unit day.
I received the following email this morning:
” Since you were wary sunday and mentioned no value in the numbers for the dogs is there a reason you didnt pick any favorites?”
The power ratings as I view it are just one variable to consider in making picks. Also I dont believe its number 1. The public sentiment historically has been the most important variable in predicting outcomes against the line in most sports.
Even with the bloodbath yesterday if the Miami fiasco hadnt happened it would not of been all that bad a day…and I still have a chance to get a 2-3 outcome in the hilton contest if by some miracle Washington were to cover:)
My instincts were correct yesterday but from my experience instincts are not a very good thing to make predictions on…especially in sports wagering. Passing is the strongest action I would take….if you ever see me betting favorites where the public is 90% on that side….call 911 and send out an ambulance to pick me up…and mention that the suspect may be armed and dangerous:)
I will update later if washington turns into a play or lean. Nothing in the nhl today.