Well…we ended up with our lean on San Jose st getting blown out so a 1-2 weekend in ncaa fb.

The good news is that my contest picks went 4-1 in both the hilton and stations. Another few weeks like that an I might be in danger of cashing:) My record in the hilton is 53.33% and in Stations 57.77%

Today nothing much I can see.

In the nfl game tonight I received the following email:

“Rick, why would the line on the NFL tonight move in the opposite of the public? Seems a lot of bets on Pitt but the line went from -3 to as low as -1.5 at 5dimes. Any thoughts?”

My thoughts:

Usually what this means is that the “smart money” is on the dog but the public is all over the favorite. The problem with applying that in tonights game is that the move is too large and you are coming off the strongest key number in the nfl. You would be taking too much the worst of it to take less then 3.

I prefer to look at a small move against the way the public is betting that dosnt involve a key number and is no more then a 1 point move. Half point is much better.

This game was not even on my radar as being a potential play so I am passing on the game.


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