3:45 Update

One game tonight in college football.

#1 Ohio state is at virginia tech tonight. 66% of the bettors are on Ohio state and the line has moved with the betting from -12.5-106 to -13.5 even. In Vegas the books have the number at -14. I see no edge on either side of the game. My models show the number to be about right and I have no variables that point to either side of the game. This game is a pass for me. Now its still 1 hour before the game starts and I will take another look before the game but as of right now I am passing on the game.

The Globex is open now and the futures are unchanged. I see very little edge either way in the markets right now. What I would like to see is a move down quickly to test the lows with the idea of beginning some mean reversion trading and also some short term swing trades long. But in this area swing trades to not look very attractive. Its just too easy to get whipsawed with the sharp movedments up and down. If I do trade it will only be most likely a day trade until we get to a very over sold market.

I still feel the markets have some downside left with no letup in the volatility.

This can however change overnight if the fed abandons their rate hike rhetoric and starts talking about more easing. Then its up up and away again. But so far there is no indication of them even getting close to a change.

I am flat going into Tuesday and have only made three trades this month so far.

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Sunday we went 1-1 with our MLB Plays winning with Cleveland +125 4-0 and losing with Oakland +117 3-2.

Today right now one game looks pretty good to me for having value:

Monday MLB Play
Angels +146

A few other possibilities but its a little early to tell.

Early MLB Weightings for Monday

901 NYM – J Niese 0
902 WAS – M Scherzer 0
903 MIL – Z Davies
904 MIA – J Nicolino 1-
905 PIT – J Locke
906 CIN – A DeSclafani 2+
907 CHC – D Haren 0
908 STL – L Lynn 0
909 SF – M Leake
910 ARI – P Corbin 1
911 COL – K Kendrick 0
912 SD – I Kennedy 0
913 ATL – W Perez
914 PHI – A Harang 1
915 TB – D Smyly 0
916 DET – R Wolf 0
917 BAL – W Chen 1.5
918 NYY – M Pineda
919 TOR – M Buehrle
920 BOS – R Porcello 2
921 CLE – T Bauer 1
922 CHW – C Sale
923 HOU – M Fiers
924 OAK – F Doubront 0.5
925 TEX – Y Gallardo 0
926 SEA – R Elias 0
927 MIN – T Milone 0
928 KC – Y Ventura 0
929 LAD – Z Greinke
930 LAA – N Tropeano 3+

I will update a bit later with any plays or setups. Also will have some market comments later this afternoon.

Good Luck Today

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Twitter: rickjswingtrade
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