3:20 Update
Nothing in MLB Tonight
Two NFL Games tonight
Phil
Atl
73% of the betting is on Phil and the line has moved with the betting from -1-105 to -3-113. Models are split on the game at -3 while variables are absent. If you like Phil I think its long past taking them at -3. You usually do not end up well in the long term taking line moves that effect key numbers. 3 is the most key of all! A pass for me.
Minn
San Fran
70% of the betting is on Minn and the line again has moved with the betting from SF -4-105 to Minn -2.5 -107.
Models are again split on the game with variables clearly on SF. I am passing. If +3 becomes widely available I might reconsider. But even then its not a strong play. So as of right now I am passing. My comments on the atlanta game are the same as this game….way too later to take Minn.
Here are the updated numbers in MLB
951 WAS – J Zimmermann
952 PHI – A Nola 2
953 MIA – J Nicolino 0
954 NYM – L Verrett 0
955 SD – J Shields
956 ARI – J Hellickson 1
957 COL – J Gray 0
958 LAD – C Kershaw 0
959 CIN – K Sampson 0
960 SF – T Hudson 0
961 BOS – E Rodriguez
962 BAL – K Gausman 2
963 NYY – C Sabathia 1
964 TB – E Ramirez
965 KC – E Volquez
966 CLE – C Carrasco 0
967 HOU – S Kazmir 1
968 TEX – C Hamels 0
969 OAK – S Gray 0
970 CHW – J Danks 0
971 DET – K Lobstein 0+
972 MIN – T Duffey 0
973 LAA – G Richards 1
974 SEA – T Walker
9:05 Update
A pretty miserable day yesterday all around. My Hilton picks went 1-4. My hilton play on Washington +3.5 lost. My setup on the Bears Under lost and my MLB play lost. Almost perfect all around.
If you were fading the hilton top 5 you had a worse day then me. You would of been 0-5! And only Indianapolis in the top 5 public bets failed to cover. The public has to be ecstatic today. If your among those do not get too complacent:)
The books would have been a terrible place to be yesterday watching the games if you were a sharp bettor. I cannot imagine the noise in the miami game and the Green Bay game. There is no reason to whine though…its just week 1. 16 more weeks to go.
Here are today early MLB numbers:
951 WAS – J Zimmermann
952 PHI – A Nola 3
953 MIA – J Nicolino 0
954 NYM – L Verrett 0
955 SD – J Shields
956 ARI – J Hellickson 1
957 COL – J Gray 0
958 LAD – C Kershaw 0
959 CIN – K Sampson 0
960 SF – T Hudson 0
961 BOS – E Rodriguez
962 BAL – K Gausman 2
963 NYY – C Sabathia 1
964 TB – E Ramirez
965 KC – E Volquez
966 CLE – C Carrasco 1
967 HOU – S Kazmir 0
968 TEX – C Hamels 0
969 OAK – S Gray 0
970 CHW – J Danks 0
971 DET – K Lobstein 0
972 MIN – T Duffey 0
973 LAA – G Richards 0
974 SEA – T Walker 0
Its a rare morning in the markets with the indexs about unchanged an hour before the open. Is this the lull before the storm or volatility decreasing for awhile? Who knows.
My thoughts on the market is we get a short term move to the downside. The market is overbought right now on a 3 to 5 day basis. So I may be looking at some swing shorts over the next few days. Then historically there is substantial weakness the 2nd half of September into the first week of October. Then its time to start a portfolio of stocks through the end of march. This year the Sell in April crowd was rewarded by missing the correction and the volatility. I have been doing that for quite awhile now and it has worked out very well. So toward the end of this month I will be looking at adding about 10 to 20 stocks to hold until the end of next march. The trick is to time the entry at a time where the market is oversold along with the particular stock oversold that coincides with this time period. Not an easy task.
The argument in favor of the short term short side is the market has had an nice run up from the lows and typically the lows are retested or at least a substantial pull back before the market moves higher. In addition the market is below the 200 day MA. Which makes long trades quite a bit more treacherous.
The argument in favor of the longs is sentiment now is substantially to the short side. This is similar to fading the public in sports betting. Long term it works well but short term a little more unpredictable as shown by both Miami and Green Bay covering yesterday where the public was over 80% on both:( Another argument for the long side is the nasdaq is out performing the rest of the indexes.
So as always nothing is very clear and you combine that with the fed meeting on Thursday its quite a set of facts to consider.
So I am looking for very short term trades to the downside this week as long as the market is overbought. I have been mostly flat during this period of extreme volatility with a few short term trades and it has served me well. Many traders I know have blown up their accounts. This period has really been historical in terms of firsts!
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RickJ
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