3:40 Update

Not a good day yesterday and thats a pretty big understatement. 0-5 on my hilton picks 0-2 on my nfl plays 0-1 on nfl setups and 0-1 on my mlb play. Thats 0-9 for every setup or play. That is quite a beat! My picks in the Hilton contest are 4-11 and NFL plays 1-3. This has to be close if not the worst start to an nfl season I have encountered. The top public picks were 8-1. I imagine again if you are a “sharp” bettor you would not of wanted to be anywhere near the sports books yesterday. It was free money all around. Will this last all season? It usually does not but as in all aspects of gambling strange things can of course happen. And has.

One game tonight in the NFL

The betting is 72% on GB with the line moving contrary to the betting from -6.5-113 to -5.5+103. Its nice to see the sharps have not given up just yet:)

My models show a slight edge to KC. Variables also show a slight edge to KC. I am passing on the game. There is no edge enough for me to consider the game a setup or a play.

In MLB one play tonight

Monday MLB Play
San Fran

Here are tonights MLB Weightings:

951 STL – L Lynn 1
952 PIT – J Happ
957 BOS – E Rodriguez
958 NYY – I Nova 1
955 TOR – M Estrada
956 BAL – C Tillman 1+
959 MIN – T MILONE 0
960 CLE – C Kluber 1
967 KC – Y Ventura 1
968 CHC – K Hendricks
961 DET – J Verlander
962 TEX – C Lewis 1
963 OAK – F Doubront 0
964 LAA – H Santiago 0
965 HOU – L McCullers 0
966 SEA – R Elias 0
953 LAD – Z Greinke
954 SF – J Peavy 3
969 CIN – B Finnegan
970 WAS – M Scherzer 1

I did get an email last night asking if I was going to modify my strategies. Not a chance! Its only been 3 weeks into the season. Now if this were to go on for a number of years I would have to modify but I doubt the public is going to get rich betting the NFL. They never have and most years the public has to jump ship before half way through the season. Maybe this year they will make it 3/4 of the way through as they are flush with money after week1 and week3!

The markets are down about .60 % 45 min before the open. Time is running out on the test of the lows but there is plenty the next two weeks that could produce the drama that would trigger that move and lower. First the fed governors every day come out and promise rate hikes by the end of the year. Its almost as if they are trying to get the market to break. Rather then saying its data dependent they are saying expect it. Its a unusual position when so many people are out of the workforce and this recovery has been very weak. In addition foreign governments are begging them not to raise rates. Very unusual.

However the other catalyst is with Boehner resigning conservative republicans in the house will now have a chance to forcefully promote their issues. Its long been the feeling that moderate republicans have been far to soft on our president and that now is the time to get tough by forcing a shutdown of the government. But its not only the conservative republicans that are talking that talk but the white house also. If this gains steam its no telling how low the markets will plunge. And as we have seen from the past the trade is to buy a day or so before the deadline when magically they reach a deal and the market skyrockets. This has been the best trade setup that I really ever seen with the exception of the dramatics of the greek funding which operated very similarly. Now the risk is the government gets shut down and the market plunges lower…but nothing is 100%!!!

I am long one mean reversion trade in an equity and short the spy via puts going into today. I intend to slowly add mean reversion trades in equities..but very slowly. My puts I will not have long. Will need to see the market action early before deciding what to do.

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