3:55 Update

One game tonight in the NFL:


65% of the betting is on Seattle with the line staying pretty steady for a change. -10+103 to -10-103. Models favor Seattle. Variables favor Detroit. Not much else to say. The game is a pass for me.

The markets are continuing their rally this morning after the reversal Friday. Not much new news. Still a lot of uncertainty both between our congress and the white house, europe immigration, and syria to add a lot of risk to this market. Anything right now has the potential to trigger a dramatic sell off.

The market is short term overbought right now and risk as I see it is to the downside. Also I would not be looking at getting long in here. I am short a mean reversion trade and it looks like I am going to take some heat:) Although its only 1/4 a position.

I have been getting some emails regarding my conservative SPY/SSO or SDS trade. Its very difficult to take this on the long side right now with the SP500 leading the nasdaq and the indexs under the 200 day moving average. Whenever you have this combination you usually want to be out of the markets. In addition it increases risk on all Long Trades. As far as the short side of this trade. We have not reached the extremes needed to pull the trigger on this trade. The requirements are more stringent on the short side then the long side of the trade.

Patience is the key here. There will be plenty of time to get agressively long soon. First we wait until seasonality changes(we are almost there) and then wait for the Nasdaq to start leading(we are not about there). I would say still several weeks or maybe more this year. Will be interesting to see how things develop the next month.

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