A very good day Sunday. In the Hilton Contest I went 3-1 with Phil left for my fifth pick.
My NBA plays went 4-0-1. My NHL play on New Jersey +193 was a winner. NFL setups went 1-1.
Tonight looking at the NFL:
Betting is 41% on Phil with the line staying steady at -3.5. Variables slightly favor Phil. Models favor Phil. I am passing on the game. If Phil did not have such a good game last week I might even bet them tonight. But usually I do not like to pick teams that had a great game the previous week. Although the fact the betting is primarily on the dog offsets that. The variable I am looking at that favors Phil also is not the strongest. So a pass for me. Would be nice to bring it in and have a 4-1 week though.
In MLB I am passing . Variables strongly favor KC but models favor Toronto. A push…a pass.
Nothing in the NHL game tonight.
In the nba one game looks good to me:
Monday NBA Play
New Orleans +6.5
That is most likely it for tonight.
The markets are gaping down about 1/2 a percent 30 min before the open. My Short spy trade has been carried over from last week. That was the first half of the trade. So far it does not look likely the 2nd half will be put on. A strong rally from here however would change things a bit.
The market is very overbought right now and due for either a corrective move down or a continuation down to test the lows. Which will happen its anyone’s guess. But seasonality will soon be very positive. Say around nov 1st. My guess is the 2nd scenario is almost gone right now but the corrective move down into the end of the month is still likely.
I received a few emails regarding my parameters for getting long into the strong seasonal period.
1. SP500 closing over the 200 day MA on a weekly basis. The reason is that this is a very popular area that most professional traders use for portfolio development. Buy and hold is a thing of the past. Many portfolio traders either hedge or lighten up under the 200 day MA. In addition taking this approach reduces your draw downs and increases your EV historically.
2. The Nasdaq leading the SP500 on a weekly close basis. Historically most of the gains in the markets are when the nasdaq is leading. Its about as consistent an indicator that one can find. Right now the Nasdaq is lagging by quite a bit but that can change quickly.
3. A capitulative move breaking the lows of this move down with high volume (500 to 1000 ) pt down move in a day. This would be the idea as it would give you the best opportunity to get long close to the bottom of the move. But is the scariest scenerio. Essentially a market crash where everyone is bailing. Its unmistakable and does not come along very often.
So thats what I am looking for. One of the above …not all three! At that point I will start putting on medium turn trades for the nov april period and in addition get aggressive on my swing trading. So far its been hit and run for me during this correction and it has saved me quite a bit of money while others have drowned in this volatility.
For today its manage existing trades and maybe a scalp or a swing trade short. Just depends on how the day sets up.
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