Sunday we won with Tenn in the NFL. I still do not know how we managed to do it:) We lost our NHL play. Our two NFL setups both were winners.
One game tonight in the NFL.
Betting is 54% on Arizona with the line moving from -7.5 to -10. Models favor Baltimore and Variables favor Baltimore. The only thing keeping the game from a play is the % number at 45%. Its hard to get excited about a game where 45% of the betting is on that side. But still its enough for a setup:
Bet or Pass
Also in the Hilton contest this is my final pick for the weekend. I am 2-2 going into this game.
Monday NHL Play
The markets are slightly down about an hour and a half before the open.
The adage sell in may took a new meaning this year as the volatility was nerve racking for most traders. I know many traders that blew up their accounts during this period forgetting the most important thing in investing…..trade management. If you were inclined to press your losses on the way down the market showed you no mercy. For those of you that have been reading this during this season its about as good an example as you can get that emotions do move markets. If you have a weatherbell on the emotions of the various market participants you are a step ahead of the game.
Well lets go back to my three scenarios for jumping back into the market. The 500 to 1000 point plunge down to new lows is out of the picture! That was the ideal entry and we are not going to get it. Not this time anyway. But put it in the back of your mind for next September October. Its absolutely the best entry to get into the seasonally best 6 months of the year.
But the other two have now been met. The market is now over its 200 day MA and the Nasdaq is now leading on a weekly basis. So…the big question is what do we do now …two of my triggers have been met and we are just a few days from Nov 1st. Do we jump in today and get aggressive with swing trades or do we wait for a pullback and then jump in.
If anyone has the answer please email me right away:) Whats interesting about the markets is you almost never get the perfect setup and then when you do its almost never the perfect result. Its nothing as simple as AA against KK in Holdem. I was going to use AA23 in Omaha 8 but I am on 9 hand losing streak with that hand!
Its more like betting on sports where on any given day anything can happen. The exception is you do not have to buck a 5% vig to play.
My plan then after all this build up is to gradually get in starting today. I may have to take some heat on my early entries. These are the stocks I intend to hold until May 1 or so. For swing trades I will start taking a few to the long side but if we get the pullback will then get aggressive on those.
That seems like a reasonable approach to me. I do have a swing short in the market carried over from last week. I will manage that also.
It should be a fun six months with some money to be made….we will see:)
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