2:40 Update
Sunday plays went 1-2 with my NFL play winning on Buffalo -3 but my two College hoops totals both losing. NFL Setups went 1-2. Hoop setups 0-1. Overall not a stellar day. My NFL Hilton picks went 2-3 and I needed Phil to avoid a 1-4 day. But they came through.
One game tonight in the NFL:
Dallas
Washington
Betting is 71% on Washington with the line moving contrary to the betting from -4 to -2.5. Variables favor Dallas even at +2.5 but models favor Washington. This is a familiar pattern we are seeing more and more of this season. A heavily bet favorite where the line moves substantially in the opposite direction. And perhaps just coincidentally the “sharps” are not having a very good year this year. This of course makes it much more difficult to be a sharp bettor and wait until game time to get down. As in tonight the line has moved so far that its no longer feasible to take Dallas. And unless you want to be with 71% of the bettor( I know I do not!) you have to pass on the game. Which is exactly what I will be doing …A pass. Perhaps if the “sharps keep getting pounded we can get back to normal with the line moving substantially with the betting. We will see.
Subscribers I will be sending out plays from 1-10 min before game time.
If you think speculating in the stock market isnt risky then you should of been short GMCR(Green Mountain Coffee) going into this weekend as 12% of the float of the stock was. An unexpected buyout at a 75% premium to the stock was offered and the result is Green Mountain is up 75% 30 min before the open. Nice surprise if your short green mountain! Or even worse if you were in the habit of selling naked calls:)
Well I do not have to worry about things like that. My boring conservative strategy does not expose me to that kind of risk. I am long a portfolio of about 12 stocks right now. I have removed all covered calls for now and have one swing trade on at the moment. I am looking to adding to swing trades if they trigger.
I am expecting a move higher from here into year end. But we have to get through the government shutdown this week. And have to get through Terrorist attacks. That unfortunately is no small feat. I expect some anxiety in the the negotiations this week between congress and the president. And also have a small worry in the back of my mind that this time they may actually close the government down for awhile. The rhetoric just keeps getting more and more heated.
Its an interesting environment if your investing. But I prefer the good old days when Terrorism was not an everyday threat and our government worked together nicely at all branches for the benefit of all Americans. Takes the stress off to say the least. 2016 is going to be a historic year for America …but be sure and batten down the hatches because the ride will not be an easy one for all of us.
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RickJ
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