3:20 Update
Sunday we went 0-1 on our NFL play with Baltimore +10.5. When double digit road favorites with 76% of the betting cover easily I am not going to do well! NFL Setups on the totals went 2-2. NFL Setups on the sides went 1-1. There was a setup in the NBA and it lost.
Tonight 1 game in the NFL:
Giants
Miami
Betting is 76% on the road dog although its pick in a few spots. The line has gone from pick to -1 on Pinnacle. I am 2-2 on my Hilton picks and Miami tonight is the rubber game for me. Variables are split on the game and models are fairly neutral. The game shapes up better with Miami as a home dog but it close either way you look at it. I am passing on the game. I picked it in the hilton contest but the variables have switched around a bit.
This brings me to an email I received asking about variables and models. The models are programs I have developed that take a set of data and work routines on them constantly updating the significance of various data to predict a line on the game. I have often said that these models are the least predictive of what I do. However the last season or two they have been pretty good in the NFL and College football. They kept me away from Houston last night!
The variables are items that are not easily quantifiable to place into models. They run the gamut from reverse line moves to situational analysis. It used to be that I would just use Situational Analysis in several of the sports but more and more the books are shading the lines to the detriment of the “sharp”. So models are starting to be significant again.
In order for variables alone to do the trick you need to assume that the lines the books put out are close to what the real line should be. Then the variables anticipate that on this particular day because of a particular setup of circumstances one team is more likely to cover.Some variables have been solid performers for years…some come and go. Its a constantly changing process.
Its a constant battle between the books and the public. But then you have the “sharps” that are looking to take advantage to lines made for the public. Its really a big game within a game trying to figure the puzzle out. Ie who is going to cover today.
I take a comprehensive approach in evaluating games. What I talk about on this website is a pretty simplistic discussion of what I do.
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Subscribers I will be sending out plays again today 1 to 10 min before game times.
Good Luck Today
This is the week we have all been waiting for. The Federal Reserve lead by Yellen is expected to raise rates come hell or high water later this week.
To give you an idea just how unusual the timing is:
“In the past, GDP growth has been more than 5% at the start of a tightening cycle. Today, it’s 3%. In the past, headline CPI inflation has been around 3%. Today, it’s 0.2%. Another difference is that past rate hikes happened as corporate profits were on the rise. This one will happen in an earnings recession that’s being caused in large part by the collapse of commodity prices. Further, past rate hikes have happened when there was little fear of dollar strength. This one is expected to exacerbate already worrisome dollar strength.”
So what gives? Your guess is as good as mine. But one thing is certain the Fed indeed has itself in a corner where they do not have much choice but to raise rates this week. You cannot come out every day and say your going to raise rates….Sort of like the person that keeps saying what he is going to do to give him the courage to do it….and maintain credibility if you do not do it.
There is no doubt in my mind that if they were silent on the subject going into this meeting there would be no chance of a rate hike.
I am long a portfolio of stocks with a few mean reversion trades on and 1 swing trade. The market has reversed course after tanking overnight and is now positive about 1/3%. The market is very oversold and combining that with this week being the strongest of the year historically and followed by another strong seasonal week I expect we get a nice bounce anytime soon. I was actually hoping for a gap down to get some more trades in but looks like that is not going to happen this morning.
Let me also mention one more thing. Last week was pretty brutal if you were long. But if your doing a timed trade for a portfolio or mean reversion trading panic should not be one of your strategic options. Panic never works out well. In the markets it usually get your out of the market near the bottom. When the market drops like it did last week you need to get control and stick with your trading rules. As long as you have positioned sized your trades appropriately you should have 0 sweat. If you have over traded then you have put yourself in a position you do not need to be in. Why make it harder then what it already is. To introduce a psychological component to it “panic” makes it almost impossible to make money.
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RickJ
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