It doesn’t get much better then this. 2-0 this weekend on the ncaa fb picks, 3-0 on the nfl picks, 4 of the 5 plays won outright easily as dogs, 4-1 in the hilton and leroys contest. Through week 5 of the nfl over 60 percent on college and pro football plays and 16-9 in the Hilton contest…64%.

This should bring me in the top 20 going into week 6 ….close to the top 10.

There will be some rough sledding ahead but its nice to get a good jump in the Hilton contest where you can take a bad week and still be over 60%.

In mlb we lost our lean on Cinci. Our Leans in mlb have dropped dramatically in relation to the plays. So I will probably keep that format next season since there is such a big difference this year between leans and plays in mlb.

Today not much to look at. Nothing I can see in an game today. So a break today.

Also I have discovered another indicator on my football plays that will most likely work for anyone that plays poker regularly. At the game last week I mentioned that the only game I liked was S. Carolina….and one of the players(actually a person whose handicapping abilities I respect) seemed to be upset that I would have a play against a team that had won 19 in a row! But of course S. Carolina not only covered easily but won outright by 2 touchdowns.

So if your ever in doubt about a play you have…just mention you have it at the poker table…and if any of the players become upset or laugh at your play…..thats a very good indication your on the right side:)

Also an email:

“Hey Rick, great day today! My question is about when the lines move. The Minn, Iowa St. and UNLV games all lost half a point today, do you think they were still profitable after that? If so how much value do you think they lost? Especially Iowa st going from getting 7 to 6.5”

My response:

In College football I dont worry much about half point moves. In the nfl half point moves off of 3 have to be respected…and to a lesser degree half point moves off of 7. As far as value lost…….I really dont know…..I have never looked at value of half point moves off of certain numbers. Perhaps someone else that follows this blog can help out.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays

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  • mrbirdie
    Reply

    Rick:
    Great weekend–Your discipline is remarkable. Looking for NHL ML/TOTALS.
    TYVM

  • mouldhouse
    Reply

    From a straight percentage point of view Rick, I think the easiest way to demonstrate the loss of edge would be to use something like this:

    http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tools/half+point+calculator.aspx

    What it does show you very easily is that there is according to them a 5.28% push probability on the +7 line, so it might be fair to assume that sort of loss of "edge".

    However a 60% capper will result in a yield of around 15% (14.54 at nickel lines according to my calcs, higher with lower vig of course), and whilst its not correct to say you've got that sort of edge on each bet of course, a loss in the magnitude of 5 percentage points might be reasonably assumed to nudge it down to a 10% yield, which would still be a play.

    Depends what value you put on looking at the scores, and seeing Rick got a push and you made a loss…..

    Just my 2 cents-worth….the maths of the above isn't precise but its a stab at an answer.

    P.S. Rick, you are the man.

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