Another good weekend in football. College was 3-1 and although there were no picks in the Nfl this weekend I am 3-1 in both contests with Houston +5.5 going tonight.

Should be either a small pickup in the contests with 3-2 or a large pickup if houston covers. Nice spot to be in on a very tough week for me.

Nothing tonight in the nba or nhl.

An email:

I want to thank you for the hard work you put into handicapping and sharing it with us. One problem I have is sometimes the picks just look so bad I cannot bring myself to bet on them. Inevitably those are the ones that do the best.

Any advice?

My response:

I used to have the same problem. I would handicap and then pass on a few games where i just felt that how could they cover.

Its a constant battle to fight human nature. All your instincts are going to attempt to sabotage your success. Its too deep to get into why…but its a fact very few people can put human nature aside and be successful at gambling. Sooner or later except in the most disciplined its going to attempt to get you:)

Probably the best analogy I can think of is what you learn as an instrument rated pilot. I flew for almost 30 years…20 years of that I was instrument rated.

The first thing you learn when your flying with no visual flight clues…ie in the clouds and cannot see anything… Is that if your instincts and feelings tell you one thing but your instruments tell you something else….believe your instruments!!!!!

Thats why you hear from time to time of people flying a perfectly good airplane into the ground. They believe in there heads something is wrong…adjust the controls…when the reality is if they would of believed there instruments they would of been ok.

A lot can happen to you when your flying IFR. Vertigo can set in, confusion, panic, hyperventilation etc. But you can prevent all this by focusing on your instruments and flying and adjusting by what they tell you not what you believe or think.

Its the same for handicapping. Once you have a good technique that has been proven and your confident in…follow it….dont succumb to your old thinking…the way the public thinks year in and year out and loses.

Lee on the road in game 1 only laying -118…a gift? Not according to the instrument! Alabama -7…number 1 team in the country that has won 19 straight….against s. carolina…a gift….not according to the instruments.

You get the drift by now…..its an instinct you have to fight to be successful. When you feel yourself slipping…just ask yourself….do I want to go back to the unsuccessful public way….or a logical methodical approach that has the best chance of succeeding.

Hope this helps.

Twitter: rickjsportplays

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  • Anonymous

    That was a great answer and yet I have pointed out your site to a couple of friends and they still refuse to understand. All that tells me is that people will not be coming around to your way of thinking despite demonstrable results because for many, gambling is not about winning, its about action and emotions.

  • Anonymous

    Yeah I find myself saying "NO WAY can I bet on this crappy team". The one game I think of that always changes my mind is Stanford winning @ USC a few years ago as a 40+ point underdog. If that underdog can win, anyone can.

    Rick, another CFB question:
    I notice that a lot of your picks in college football seem to be low scoring games. Is that on purpose or coincidence? In higher scoring games (like most Pac 10 games), I guess getting points is less valuable because these teams can score 21 points in just a few minutes, whereas in lower scoring games, every extra 1/2 point you have as an underdog can be the difference between winning and losing.

  • Anonymous

    Your observation is on the mark! But human nature will most of the time disregard the instrument. It takes large balls to for example SOCCER every tipster and service say these two teams can and will score as they need goals to move up in standings. Under and Over is 3.
    Most players will bite and bet the OVER. I can honestly say that I am a true contrarian and savor bucking the trend and would play UNDER. It doesnt work all the time but % wise you will make out much better. Remember HAVE BALLS because you will be on the side of the lousy teams and VEGAS knows how to make a line so the public will bite.

  • woody

    Great blog and enjoy your insight. I to try to stay clear and go opposite of the public. Its a good way to go if you stick to it, but thats the hardest epecially if you read too much and get off your own process. A good example is tonight in Indy. The OVER is the huge play as everyone expects a shoot-out. I am leaning under myself but probably will not play it b/c there is that chance that it will go way over. But public perception is a shootout and this could very easily land under the 51-52 points in my eyes.
    Keep up the good work and thanks again!

  • Anonymous

    Only idiots follow riccj. He has no clue what he is doing and fails at the most basic of sports betting concepts.

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