Monday after Superbowl, The stock market, my thoughts

As we head into this week the stock market is hovering right around the even mark. Of note TLT off .36% IBB +.21% , Financials around even, Oil off over 1%, and Metals off sharply.

To me this is a mixed premarket , but overall, a slightly negative bias.

We have had quite a rally from the lows, but we are heading into stiff resistence. In particular, we are getting into the 200 Day moving average area. This is the decision area, where we find out if this is merely rally and we turn over lower, or a V shaped recovery is in the works. Or of course something in between.

Right now we are overbought. Its very tough to jump in right here to go along for the ride. I would wait for a pullback to see what develops. Or at least wait until we get back to neutral, or oversold.

A lot going on, We have the SOTU on Tuesday, Mueller report out any day, Barr confirmation hearings, Caravans heading to the S. Border with U.S. Troops heading there also, A border wall fight that will not go away, Venezuela, and of course trade negotiations with China.

Then just as an aside, we have Russia and Iran, sending people into Venezuela to support the Madura government. It’s turning into a real powder keg. One has to ask, how did the U.S. let it get this far?

So, a lot to consider, but there always is:) The best approach is to have a methodology that manages risk. Easier said than done. But I have been doing it for years. But again, I have the advantage of weathering the poker tables full time in Vegas for 15 years. You either go broke, or you learn.

There is not much to do today. I am going to keep my watch list going, and perhaps take a short term trade. But other than that swing trades are pretty much out until we at least get back to neutral. And as for mean reversion, we are a long way from thinking about that right now.

So as usual:

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: Ricca

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