The markets are gaping higher Monday morning with DIA +.85% QQQ about unchanged, SPY +.55% IWM +1.40%. @CL +1% $vix.x +.37% TLT-.17%
Even though gaping higher the premarket action does not look that promising. I would not be surprised to see a gap fill.
On Friday we had 8 short put trades. Unfortunately, LK was one of them. I held it over the weekend and now trading has been halted in the stock. So this last week is going to be a loss despite going 7-1 on the trades. But the net loss will not be known until we see what LKNCY opens up at in the OTC markets.
I will give an analysis of the trade for instructional purposes after I close out the stock.
Other than that everything else looks sound. My portfolio is staying solid. Also, my medium-term put sales are looking good.
Remember you can get all my trades for free until MLB season begins. Right now we are looking at the end of July for the beginning of a 60 game season.
I get quite a few emails regarding my discussion about current events. I am again going to state that I have no ideology that drives me. I just call it as I see it. Sometimes I am right and sometimes not. But historically I get it right more often than not.
If you missed it I highly recommend the Levin interview Sunday with Allen West. It is about as good an analysis as I have seen regarding the current state of America. https://youtu.be/zatjTX2Ac1g
I see things almost the same as Allen West does right now.
Now, if you disagree that is fine. Healthy debate is fine and I welcome it:)
Let’s take a look at the political odds this morning:
Biden 91/9 +2 Lts
Sanders 1/99 No Change
Clinton 5/95 -1 Pt
Cuomo 1/99 No Change
It’s looking more and more like it’s going to be Biden. Since I last posted the only person that is above 1 Pt is Clinton. I still have a lingering feeling that the Dems will dump Biden. But its a real longshot right now.
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 50/50 +2 Pts
Klobuchar 1/99 No Change
Abrams 3/97 No Change
Warren 8/92 +1 Pts
Masto 1/99 No Change
Whitmer: 1/99 -4 Pts
Rice 9/91 -8 Pts
Demings 14/86 +1Pts
Still looking like Harris, but Harris does not get him any votes. California is already in his pocket. Rice has jumped into 2nd place. No doubt Obama would love to have Rice in place ready to step in as President. I have no idea who they will pick. With the Dems you just have to figure out their strategy. If they think they have this one in the bag, then it will most likely be Rice.
Trump 39/61 -3 Pts I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55
Biden 61/39 +2Pts
I Still like Trump at even money or better. The media has again portrayed a race where trump is understated. The base has not left him but gotten stronger. It is hard to evaluate if you are watching cable news. Even tougher if you watch their polls. In reality, you have to figure it out on your own as there is no dataset that is reliable right now.
There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts. As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.
The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins 2. He is costing the establishment a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.
I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:) Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 65/39 +8 Pts
Again I believe the value is on the Republicans, It looks like a repeat of 2016 to me with the polling.
Control of the House:
86/14 Democrats: +1 Pts
I took 4 to 1 and now staring at 6 to 1. Lot of EV in getting 6 to 1 here. I may end up wagering more at this price. Another good wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
60/40 in favor of the Democrats +2 Pts
I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda. The better wager to me is getting 6 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House.
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 97/3+1 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is looking grim for my wager. Although the technical recession should be very short-lived.
The best wager of the year will be fading the dirty 30 in the House. They are all incumbents, and all will most likely be +odds. So you only need to go 50% to make money. I cannot imagine not hitting 60%+ on these. I will start looking for these matchups as they are posted.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks