Monday after Options Expiration = ? this week in the markets???

12:20 Update

Sunday we went 2-1 on our NCAA Hoop plays, 0-1 on our NHL plays and 0-1 on our 1/2 unit NBA play.

Both our sides were good yesterday with Syracuse -6 a laugher and Wisconsin +4.5 a winner with Wisconsin winning the game by 3. We lost on the over but had our chances as it looked like OT but Wisconsin hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to eliminate that for us.

We are heading into the end of the season now in college hoops and despite a bit of a pullback, we are just above 55% for the season with 258 Plays. That is a pretty respectable number. We were hitting the 60% mark for a long time but march set us back a bit. But it’s hard to go through 258 plays in a season without some pullback.

As most of you might have noticed I have put up on the site a referral program. It’s very simple as I am not much for keeping detailed books for accounting. Simply if you’re a subscriber you qualify for the program. And it’s for every person that you bring in as a subscriber you receive 25.00. It will be paid to you directly via PayPal as soon as I receive the subscriber’s subscription.

This will be a way to get your subscription cost lower and also help me build my subscriber base. A win-win as far as I can see it.

Baseball is right around the corner and the only initial requirement for meeting the 130.00 Cashback program is being a subscriber on day 1 of the regular season. Then the rest is explained on this site.

If anyone has any ideas on promoting this service please let me know. The referral was at the request of a subscriber which thinking about it is an excellent idea.

Things are going to slow up a bit now before baseball. As I sent out earlier there are 3 games right now on my radar of this weekend.

In addition, I anticipate we will be having, at least, a few 1/2 unit plays between now and the start of baseball season.

Now is an excellent time to get mentally prepared for baseball. And also to ask any questions regarding any concerns or improvements you might have in mind.


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks



This year in the markets has been about as strange as it could be. Starting out with a historic opening of the year plunge and now almost an equally historic rebound and we are only in mid march!

To make it stranger is the unexplained random rhetoric from the Fed that has fueled much of this volatility.

And so the question remains where do we go from here. The bullish sentiment is starting to look good if you’re wanting a pullback. The markets are about as overbought as I have seen them in awhile. And historically if there is going to be a pullback before the spring rally then it usually happens the week after march options expiration.

And that is exactly where we are at now. Futures this morning is flat while SPY is off .15% 30 min before the open.

As most of you know my favorite approach is centered around mean reversion techniques. I have tightened them up quite a bit since I started trading them as shown by my letting the fall and rise this year take place with my bankroll still intact. January was not a good month for me but I bounced back in February even as the market continued to fall and March has been about break even.

But the lesson is that if you took mean reversion trades based upon the popular RSI2 only then you most likely are not here reading this site this morning. More than likely your still out looking for employment:)

Mean reversion is a fantastic trading technique but you had better have a variety of filters that work in screening your trades. If you do not then its just a question of time before you get tagged.

That is why I am here to help guide you through this maze. And avoid some of the pitfalls that I have seen and some I have not avoided!

If you want to follow my trades then it’s easy to do as my private swing trade and day trade twitter feed is now free. Just go to @rickjswings and follow.

In addition, I am around during the day trading and welcome any emails. Finally, you can always take a look at my spreadsheet by following the link on the site. As with sports, my trades are 100% transparent.

Back to trading. My thinking today is we get the start of a pullback that lasts a few days. If not today then this week. The pullback most likely will be shallow and we will be looking soon at new highs for this move.

But are we out of the woods for a test of the lows of this year. That’s a tough question where experts are split. Myself I feel that it’s unlikely but still maybe a 20% possibility.

I am long a small position in energy, Short a 1/4 position in spy for mean reversion I put on Friday, and finally short energy through ERY on a mean reversion trade.

I am looking for a long again in TLT if it triggers today. Other than that a bit late to be looking at  the long side at least until we get a pullback.


Good Luck Trading today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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