“Rick,
often times the lines in these games have been bet down somewhat by the time I’m able to get them in, as mentioned/expected, however there’s the somewhat rare instance where the line improves (seemingly) in our favor. example: 749 new mexico is now -3, 767 miss st. now +15… but 808 weber which opened at a pick is now +2. From what I’ve tracked thus far these plays have a lower winning %, which seems to make sense as “betting the steam” is usually profitable. But the sample size is rather small, and I also can’t help but think, “hey the line improved, RickJ knows his stuff, why not bet?”
(In this specific case I’d assume the change was due to the injury status you mentioned, and that would lead me to believe the public is overreacting and the play is +ev, but aside from that…)
Are these games where perhaps one should stay away? If not, what are your thoughts on say, taking better odds by still betting on Weber at a pick and forgoing the +2?
Was hoping you could shed some light on this. Thanks again for the tremendous service you provide. Wish you all the best. “
My response:
I think you can read into these line moves about whatever you want to. One thing is for sure though….I am only on year 2 of handicapping the college hoops in this manner and the sample size is rather small. You would really need at least 2000 wagers to get a true feel for where you might be at.
The sample size on line moves against me is even smaller. And although it does seem in those instances the plays are not very good….i dont think you can draw any conclusions yet. Maybe in another 10 years:)
I just bet the picks…and see where the picks come out at the end of the year. So far so good…but much to early to tell. About the only trend I see of any significance is the first month is dynamite and then things level out.
As far as taking Weber st +2. If I hadn’t already bet the game at a pick I would pass on the game. I dont bet dogs of +1.5 to +6.5 The end game in college hoops just doesnt support those dogs since its usually low percentage 3 pointers vs high percentage shots at the line. Now not everyone agrees with me on this but many smart handicappers do also.
Another comment then I am off to the Bellagio:
“Weber St is +2 b/c a very well-respected and successful service released the other side.
The public does not move obscure CBK lines, influential bettors, services, and those with a following like Rick do. “
My response:
I agree with that 100%. That is why i dont even look at what the public is doing in college hoops.
Good Luck today
Rick
