8:10 Update
Wednesday we went 0-2 losing Toronto +107 3-4 as a one unit play and losing LAA +133 1-2 as a 1/2 unit play.
I was asked about whether I have considered taking a look at the run line in some of these games. Of course, that would mean that if we only lost by 1 we would win the bet. Certainly would have worked out well the last two weeks:) But overall there are very few run line methods that are positive EV. The vig is much higher than just a regular money line. You can track them this season if you want but I have already done the homework. Almost without exception, the money line works out better than the run line!
We are almost 3 weeks into the baseball season and so far it’s been a nice run-up and a nice run down. We are on the plus side 2.105 units going 10-10 for +3.86 units for 1 unit plays and 6-12 for -2.205 in 1/2 unit plays. We also are 2-1 on half unit totals for +.45. All in all not very dramatic moves up or down. But the first three weeks so far have been very typical of what I would expect in MLB with the exception that the swings most likely will get much bigger on the plus side and the down side.
Looking over baseball today should be a play early and have just started looking over the evening games. Also remarkably not much looking very good in the NBA for the playoffs. I would have expected a few plays here and there. The NHL Playoffs however typically does not produce many opportunities for me.
I will be around most of the morning if anyone has any questions. It’s never a bother getting direct messages or emails from subscribers. I enjoy discussing questions about handicapping or anything else for that matter!
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
And I am serious about that. You have taken quite a beating if you’re short. Probably as bad as the traders that were long the first of the year. So Its almost the end of April and we have learned how true that adage is “markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent”
But are they irrational? There really is no way of knowing as the forces that move the markets every day and every year are most likely ones that are not readily available to the general public. So the only thing you can do is trade price action, manage risk, and keep your human side in check.
Sounds pretty simple:) Just ask all the traders that have tried and failed. Say about 80% of the universe of traders that have given it a go. Combine that with the idea that you’re at home in front of your PC on windows 10 with maybe a cable modem trying to out maneuver super computers that have access to the markets at lightning speed. So what is one to do starting out with that handicap. Find a niche you can profit from. They are out there. But it’s not scalping pennies out of a 100.00 stock. It’s midterm swing trading.
I do not have time this morning to get into the why but if I remember I will answer that question for you. Let me give you a hint, however. It’s a trade that does not require lightning execution speed. That is a big step in the right direction.
Now scalping is fun to try and beat. But you’re just at too much of a disadvantage compared to the serious scalpers participating. Sort of like laying 6/5 on your sports bets or a 30c line in baseball.
I am short two stocks both swing trades and short and long oil. The long is a medium term hold and the short is a mean reversion which has about 1 week left in the trade. Today I am still stalking IEV for a short and also going to be looking for short setups for swings.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
