I cannot think of a better time to update the political odds page. 2 Days before the midterms with everyone on the edge of their seat on this one:)
Before I start, despite what some people might think I am an independent. I voted for Obama his first term, and then held my nose and voted for Romney next time.
In addition, after 2016 my assumption is that most of the polls are worthless. No value. Of course, the internal polling that we never get to see is usually pretty close, but it has almost 0 correlation with what you are seeing from the media.
For instance, The day of the election in 2016 most of the polls had Clinton a 95% favorite to win. Yet 1 day before the election, Clinton canceled the celebration fireworks. They knew what was coming. But the media would not give it up.
So, if you disagree with my assumptions you will most likely disagree with my conclusions. Which is fine:) They are merely my opinions and nothing more.
But I have an uncanny knack for finding value in political bets. When I was playing poker full time it was a gold mine betting players on political events. So much so, I had to consider giving it up as most gamblers are not very good losers:)
So here we are 2 days before the midterms and let’s go through some of the odds that look to me to have some value.
I still feel the best value is simply fading every Dem candidate in States that Trump carried. I cannot imagine not having a gain on Wedn doing that. I have been saying that for months, and the odds are not as good as they were two months ago. But I still think you can safely do it. Do not cherry pick, just fade them all:)
The next best wager I see is in the House. Right now you can get just over 2 to 1 on the Republicans keeping the house. If you watch the polls closely they probably have you convinced.
But again, I throw the polling out, except for a select few I watch that closely resemble internal polling. I view the house at no better than 50/50 for the Dems. So at the very least if I am correct you’re getting 2 to 1 on a coin flip.
If you do that every time you will end up with all the money:) Now also I view the House odds as very similar to some of the NFL games where the line is skewed so much because one side likes a side.
So even from that standpoint, the media has convinced people that the Dems winning the house is a foregone conclusion. So that creates value.
If I had to put out a line, it would be 3-2 that the Republicans keep the house, and that is being conservative.
You really have to look at the crowds Trump is getting wherever he goes. It’s really astonishing. Does that look like a 24 seat pickup for the Dems in the House? Not to me.
Next, we have the 2020 Presidential winner where Trump is a 6 to 4 dog against the field.
That is a bit tougher to evaluate from a few different standpoints. You still have the special counsel, but it looks like he has gotten past that hurdle. But a bigger threat is the never trumpers.
Not so much in the primary where they have no chance, but when they run a 3rd party candidate against him. Make no mistake, this time Trump is not going to surprise them. They will have a strategy all planned out to assure Trump does not get reelected.
I would like to see a line put out on a 3rd party candidate being put into the race consisting of people like Kasich. Now they will have no chance of winning. But splitting the vote is the problem. Similar to Perot when he ran as an independent.
The difference is that the 3rd party candidate that the Never Trumpers will be so unpopular it most likely will not make a difference by 2020.
So if I had to wager, I would take the 6 to 4. If I thought there would be no 3rd party candidate it would be an easy wager.
Another interesting twist to all of this is that the Dems are favored to win the presidency in 2020. Something in the neighborhood of 55/45. Right now I would take the odds, but, would not consider it to be as good a wager as the first two by far.
An interesting line is the next cabinet member to leave the administration with Zinke and Sessions tied at just less than 2 to 1 each.
Sessions is such a complicated wager that there is not enough room to go over all the considerations. Sure, Graham has indicated that its fine for Trump to get rid of Sessions after the midterms. That is a big change for the Senate. But it is not as easy as all of that. So, this is a wager I would just stay away from.
One other interesting wager is the Democratic field for 2020. Right now it looks like Harris is the favorite, with Sanders, Biden, and Warren close behind.
It’s too early to get a feel for who to wager on but one thing seems reasonable to me that unless the Dems come up with someone outside who is thought to be running they will have a tough time in 2020.
I do not know if the reporting is accurate or not but if it is anywhere close to the fact that Trump has an approval rating of close to 40% of the African Americans, he will be unbeatable.
This should be my last update before election day.
This is for entertainment purposes only. Do not go out and bet the farm on any of my opinions:) As that is just what they are, my opinions.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks