We are 10 days before the Presidential election and I thought it would be a great time to update the political odds along with my thoughts.
First people need to recognize there is a very big disparity between the media pollsters and what I consider apolitical unbiased pollsters. The difference is as striking as it was in 2016.
If you look at the media pollsters the election is over. Coincidently that is what they were saying in 2016.
The independent pollsters that are typically apolitical are saying close to Trump with over 300 electoral votes this year.
So who is correct?
If you are wagering you need not bother with the outcome. But only where the EV is. As in sports betting the public moves the lines. That is the square money. It is no different in the political arena, if not more so. Some of the lines I have seen are so far out of wack I have to restrain myself:)
Fortunately (or unfortunately) predictit has an $850.00 betting limit on wagers on one bet.
I maxed out on two wagers:
The first was laying 850 to win 1497 that Biden would not win the popular vote by more than 10.5% I have a 65.00 gain so far on my wager. I see this as a huge overlay. I would put the line at closer to 30 to 1. So I have 65 of the possible 215.00 gain if I want it. If the gains get over 150 I will most likely take it.
The second is 850 to win 1065 on Florida going to Trump. Getting odds here is to me a gift. I put the line at closer to 3 to 1 in favor of Trump taking Florida. There are a few reasons. The pollsters I listen to have the state locked up for trump. The worry is voter fraud, but in Florida, there is a solid republican governor so I doubt that it’s going to be a big concern there. I have a 60.00 gain on that wager. That is 65.00 of a 640.00 potential gain. I doubt there will be a chance to lay this one-off.
These two wagers to me look like excellent wagers.
Notice I took into consideration voter fraud in the Florida wager. This is a real concern this year, although the Republicans are winning most of their court battles, PA, Minn and Nevada are still up in the air.
The SC ruled they had 3 extra days in PA . the federal court ruled 10 extra days in Minn and Nevada has yet to be ruled on. If ACB gets in, and these issues get before the SC most likely they will all go in Trump’s favor. The 4-4 ruling on PA may get revisited and I expect that to get set aside.
So a lot to consider. Make no mistake voter fraud is a real issue in this election.
Here are my wagers going into today:
I spread my wagers out over a number of bets with the two largest being what I considered excellent EV wagers. The house races I faded were races that Trump won in 2016 and they lost the seat in 2018. There were 30 of these and I faded everyone I could find a line on. I did not cherry-pick them. There were almost half that did not have lines. So I only got 15 or so bet.
The pollsters and commentators I listen to are below:
