My thoughts on conviction odds and a wager I took this morning, updated political lines.

A lot is changing rapidly on the political scene. After the IG report came out disclosing many serious abuses by the Obama FBI using the FISI courts, the chief justice Roberts appoints an Obama appointee to head the FISA court after Collier resigns.

This is about as bad a sign as you can get. Combine that with Wray thinking training manuals are going to correct things. The trend is toward business as usual.

Then we have the upcoming trial in the Senate. More and more Republican Senators are signing onto the idea that Witness’ will be called. In other words, before even seeing the Democrats case they have decided they are open to witness’. Can it get any worse than this? This is an open attempt to weaken the President.

Then we have Judge Roberts presiding over the trial. The same Judge Roberts that gave the thumbs up to Obama care, and has now put more of the same in the FISA court. Remember all these abuses came under his watch. My take is that Roberts is bent. I do not expect Trump to get a fair shake from Roberts in the Senate trial.

So the trend is for more political chaos. The more successful Trump is the more the establishment want to remove him. That is on both sides. I doubt this impeachment is over.

The odds last week were about 13 to 1 against conviction. The odds have moved to 11 to 1 against. This morning I took the 11 to 1. Not because I think he will be convicted. But because I think the drama the Republicans create will move the line to somewhere between 7 and 5 to 1. I plan on laying this wager off rather quickly with close to a 100% gain.

Now the risk is the Republicans do dismiss:) But considering they need 51 votes. It is rather unlikely.

The odds this morning:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 09/91 Unchanged (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 No Change (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, They will lose all 3)

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 72/28 -1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time. Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 73/27 Republicans. +1 Pt

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 51/49 +4 Pts
Warren: 6/84 No Change
Biden: 22/78 -2 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 No Change
Sanders 21/79 +3 Pts
Bloomberg 5/85 -1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 No Change

Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think


RickJs Handicapping Picks

Skye: riccja

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