One more top 25 game matchup today:
# 2 Mich State
Betting is 60% on the favorite Mich State with the line moving from -4-106 to -5-110. Variables slightly favor Purdue. Models are neutral. Public betting gives a light clue towards Purdue. Even so what I am seeing does not put this game in a play or setup category. I am passing on the game.
A top 25 match up in 10 min:
#17 Texas A&M
Betting is 61% on Kentucky with the line staying steady at -3.5-106 to -3.5-103. Models and variables are neutral on the game. Public betting and line movements ever so slight point to Texas A&M. Not much to go on for me so I am passing.
Saturday we went 1-1 on plays and 7-4 on our College Hoop Totals Setups
We lost with Georgia +10.5. They lead by 5 at the half:( but could not stay within the number at the end. But we won our NHL play on Winnipeg -120. They fell behind 2-0 but then recovered to win 3-2.
We had 11 college hoop total setups and went 7-4. For information on the college hoops total setups take a look at the previous days post.
The last 4 totals I put out did not designate whether they were plays or setups. I just tweeted out NCA Hoop Totals. I left out the Bet or Pass but on the other hand, I did not designate them plays either.
So what do you do when faced with a tweet like that? First let me say I along with most human can make an error from time to time. I like to think based on the quantity of information I put out my error ratio is fairly small. But occasionally I do make them.
Looking at the tweet and if you have been following these and are not a new subscriber at best the tweet is unclear. Many subscribers dropped me an email asking about it. A few were concerned and as one subscriber put it “too late now”.
My suggestion is to send me an email and ask. These totals are not put out at the last minute like sides. So you have plenty of time to ask about it. Part of this service is that subscribers have access to me most of the day for questions on any game or anything for that matter. In addition, I am here if there is any uncertainty.
But the lesson of all this is…I do make an error from time to time. But overall very few.
Now if you did take these I expect a pat on the back this morning as they went 3-1 with the three winners covering easily:)
Now that we are winding down a bit I am going to be putting out more setups. You can then use these in your own handicapping and get an idea of the number of things I look at during a typical day. Also hopefully, these will stimulate more questions and answers.
Finally, I am still putting a lot of work each day getting my handicapping in baseball organized and ready for this season. A few things to keep in mind about baseball:
- there will be more plays than any other sport
- the variance will be at least 2 to 3 times that of any sport
- I can almost assure you that over a 5-month stretch there will be several 10 to 15 unit downswings.
- It is mandatory you find a 10c line. But that should not be a problem as many books now provide that
- I recommend starting a separate bankroll for baseball using the same guideline you used in setting up your handicapping bankroll. Then wager 2% or if you have a lower risk tolerance 1% or 1.5%.
- If the first 12 days of this month has caused you to become upset, concerned, frightened, worried, critical, or any other adjective similar to those then please do not join us for the baseball season.
- I know the money back guarantee is enticing. However if you have had some of the feelings I have mentioned above you are not ready to bet baseball on a daily basis.
Ok I know I probably left some things out but read this over and also read again the Must read a portion of the site (page link is on top) In addition I am here for questions and we still have a few weeks before the start of the season.
Good Luck Today
Rickj’s Handicapping Picks