It looks like the red flag in the first game was warranted:)
Game 2 coming up:
Betting is 54% on the home favorite with the line moving from -5.5-110 to -6+102. Models point slightly to NE. Variables point to Pit and public betting is neutral.
Unlike the first game, there are no red flags. The variables that point to Pitt are medium to light as to the weight to give them. The models are just so slight to NE. So we are looking at virtually nothing to guide us as to any clue on the game. I am passing and unless you have techniques that have been proven you should also.
First NFL game of the day:
Betting is 63% on the road dog with the line moving from -4-107 to -6-107. So off the bat, we have a red flag with the betting over 50% on the dog. Typically the public likes Favorites and Over. So when you get something different then the norm you have to take a look and see why.
Models are neutral on the game, Variables very slightly point to Green Bay, and public betting points to Atlanta.
So the things that I look at are mixed and the way I see I see no edge on either side of the first game. Typically in the NFL when you get a 2pt move off the opener it’s best to fade that move as long as it is not related to a new injury. So we have that here but to offset that we have 63% on the dog. Really you could get a headache trying to figure out where the edge is in this game. I do not play on having to take aspirin later this morning so I am passing:)
Good Luck Today whichever side you take.
Saturday turned out to be a very busy day for me with so many games but when the smoke cleared we have 5 plays going 3-2.
In College hoops, we went 2-2 winning with Rutgers +3 and Depaul +11.5 and losing with W. Kentucky +8.5 and Washington +2.5.
In the NBA we won with Charlotte under 222.
Today so far I have sent out 1 play.
I have talked recently about new variable I am developing for handicapping. So far in real-time testing, it is surpassing my expectations as it shows promise in every sport I am handicapping.
Typically, variables are sport specific. But in this case, it has shown promise in every sport so far.
This provides a bit more work for me as much of this is by hand rather than getting the information with preformatted spreadsheets. But it is the most promising variable I have seen since I started handicapping.
Saying that variables come and go. Some of the best fall by the wayside very quickly when they fail any type of real time testing. So we will see:)
We have 2 NFL games today and I should have write ups on both games an hour or so before game time.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks