A few new Political wagers to evaluate! Ryan, Flake, the House, Ala special election all discussed:)

Looks like I misread the Wray confirmation although the wager was on or before 7/31st and he was confirmed a day after the deadline.

I will have to keep that in mind, as typically I am not very far off on these political wagers.

Cynic that I am, the fast overwhelming support for Wray in the Senate does not bode well for the White House getting any relief from the FBI anytime soon.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

The markets are mixed this morning with the Nasdaq showing strong gains premarket.

Of note, Financials positive as is biotech. Weakness in oil, metals, and TLT.

Overall, no bias I can see for the day here.

I did put on 2 trades on Friday with SSO and CSX. Both were mean reversion trades. SSO has a gain and CSX has a loss. These will be short term swings with and exit perhaps today or certainly by Friday.

The markets are still slightly oversold. We have the markets essentially heading nowhere right now.

The House took its well deserved 5-week vacation after putting all they had into health care and leaving the debt ceiling and tax reform for when they get back. They certainly do not wish to be overworked.

In addition, Ryan announced he is in favor of building the wall! I wonder if he is up for reelection next year:) As I had said previously you should look to fade Ryan in the primaries. If he is announcing he is in favor of the wall his internal polling must look like he is at risk here.

Several other wagers I like:

Flake is a 3 to 1 favorite to win the GOP primary in Arizona. Take the odds. I think even money at best.

Ryan is 7 to 1 he will be reelected. Take the odds here. I think more like 2 to 1 maybe 3 to 1. If things turn south for Ryan I could envision him a dog by election time.

In the Alabama Special election, Strange is 7 to 5 to win over Moore. Take Moore, I think it’s even money at best or Moore 7 to 5.

The odds are even money as to what party will control the House after the midterms Take the Republicans here. My thought is 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

My take on all the chaos that is going on in DC is that Democrats and establishment Republicans will take a beating in 2018 with Trumpians(if that is a word) winning out.

There is a lot that can happen before Nov 2018 but I doubt that the Democrats and the establishment Republicans can dig themselves out of the hole they have dug for themselves.

I will post other political odds as I see them if I think they have some value.

But on Wray, as I said, I won the wager but lost on my reasoning. Which means I have to recheck my delusional index:)  Or perhaps the Senate knows something about Wray I do not know.

I point out political odds as unfortunately politics in the US directly affects the Stock Market. If you stay abreast of the various political machinations and understand the potential in how it can affect the markets you will be a step ahead of most.

As a final comment this morning, we have the debt ceiling coming up soon. As you know from the past this was a no brainer during the Obama years. You bought a day or two before the drop dead deadline on the budget ceiling and then took your profits after the market took off when the Republicans caved. This was almost 100%.

Now, the trick is to figure out whether the same is going to happen during the Trump presidency. I will have to give it some thought as I am not sure the Democrats are as reliable as the Republicans in caving. But you also have the Republicans who will most likely cave again. I will evaluate this a bit more and have some comments the closer we get to the debt ceiling.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

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