A slow news day today and the Stock Market is showing it slightly up in the pre-market.
Metals are strong and financials are weak. Everything else unremarkable.
This is a slightly negative bias, as without financials the market is most likely not going anywhere. If you want to try to time a turnaround, watch the financials.
The reality show goes into high gear now with the hit piece from the NY Times that a White House insider penned an op-ed for their paper.
They released it yesterday, and speculation is rampant as to who the insider is that would betray the White House in this manner.
As I was writing this I saw an article with the betting odds on who penned this piece:
Mike Pence 2-3
Betsy Devos 2 – 1
Mike Pompeo 4-1
Steve Mnuchin 4 -1
John Kelly 4-1
Jim Mattis 5-1
Jeff Sessions 5-1
And the list goes on. If I were forced to wager I would take the 5-1 on Sessions:) I think you can rule out Kelly and Mattis. 5-star generals are not prone to this kind of conduct. Pence makes a good conspiracy theory but at 2 -3 you are taking much the worst of it and as an ex-marine, I doubt he would betray the President. But Sessions fits the bill. His conduct as A.G. along with the open warfare between him and Trump make him a prime suspect!
You also have to consider that this is fake news. Considering the many false pieces coming out of the Times, that would not surprise me.
Never a dull moment in the Trump White House:) Pure entertainment.
It would be pure speculation to try to guess who the insider is, or for that matter whether there even is one. My guess is that since it is D.C. we will find out in short order the answer. In the meantime, just more chaos to throw into the time bomb that is waiting to explode.
The Kavanaugh hearings are on their third day and the Senate has reached a new low point where the children of the nominee had to be removed for their own safety.
It will not be long until they have to put a bulletproof glass cage around the nominee:)
The U.S. institutions are failing miserably at this point. No doubt, this will continue. The divide is so great at this point, and so many people have so much invested in the outcomes, I doubt there will be any compromise.
It has become survival of the fittest in D.C. right now, with no rules. Anything goes at this point.
The once U.S. democracy that was the model for the world has descended into chaos. And in my judgment, it is going to get much worse.
That does not bode well for the stock market. Sooner or later this dysfunction in D.C. is going to catch up with the stock market. The question is when.
The timing of course is everything, and there is no way to predict with any degree of certainty on this one. So you just keep trading, being aware of the risks.
On a bright note, it appears that N.Korea denuclearization is back on track. My guess is that this is the real thing. My guess also is that Trump will get few accolades if he pulls this off.
On another bright note, if you are rooting for Trump, he operates better than anyone I have seen in Chaos. While everyone else is losing their minds, he is scheming and operating at peak efficiency.
Now if you’re not rooting for Trump, this should cause you some concern. As, regardless of how you view the man, he has pulled off some unbelievable things in the last two years. All while chaos surrounded him.
One other uncertainty the stock market is going to have to deal with is the possibility of a shutdown. As if there is not enough turmoil, Trump has thrown that out to his admirers in D.C.:)
Fun times, watching this reality show that is far more entertaining than anything that is produced for T.V.
The stock market is getting a bit oversold now short term. Not enough to consider a mean reversion trade but we are getting there. I will post if we get to that point.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks