NFL regular season only 2 weeks away!!! Finally!!!

Most of you have probably noticed that the website has a bit of a different look. In addition the site should be loading much faster with access via tablet or phone better.

I have finally completed what I started on a several months ago.

Several important changes to the site:

  1. The results are now on a separate page rather than cluttering up the home page
  2. There is a blog page now that is more headline driven and easier to maneuver around if you’re looking for earlier posts

Both of these should make it easier to move around the site.

I still have a number of improvements to make but the major ones are now done. If anyone experiences and bugs or feels there are areas that still need improvement please send me an email. It would be very much appreciated!

Friday turned out to be a very busy day with 5 plays and 6 big move games.

For plays we won our 1 unit play on Colorado +142 7-6. Our 3 other 1 unit plays lost: Minn +131 4-5 , Atl +120 6-7 and Tampa +119 2-6. Our 1/2 unit play on Colorado Over 10 even won 7-6.

Our 6 big move games were:

Atlanta +132

Houston +104

Tampa +127

Toronto +116

Mets +135 Pitching change negated this game

Minn +121

 

Closing lines:

Atlanta +114

Houston -104

Tampa +124

Toronto +126

Minn +123

So 2 substantially in our favor , 2 about unchanged and on substantially against us.

 

Today so far I have sent out a 1/2 unit play and 6 big move games.

It’s always interesting to see how the new matchups develop for plays and big move games. There are so many variables in baseball its extremely difficult to separate the significant ones from the ones that are purely random. In addition money line sports for me historically have underproduced compared to spread betting. But the trend is certainly improving for money line sports as shown by the NHL results and the improvements in MLB ( 1 unit plays and Totals)

The 1/2 unit plays are a dynamic that changes substantially year to year and from the beginning of the season until the end of the season. In as much as these only require 1 season of real-time testing as opposed to the minimum of 2 years for 1 unit plays you will most likely see improvements in the 1/2 unit plays as many fall by the wayside and do not meet the 2 year requirement. (maybe wishful thinking on my part)

 

I received the following email last night that I think is very instructive:

“Rick,

Thanks for the hard work you put into your site and the dedication to educating sports bettors over the last 10+ years.

I have done a bit of system development along with backtesting and the difficulty I run into is the idea of randomness vs significance. The idea that you are always going to find patterns in data sets irregardless of whether they are predictive.

How do you do such a good job getting rid of the noise?”

My Response:

First you never get rid of all the noise. If you think you can put together predictive techniques for sports betting rid of all noise you are just fooling yourself.

The idea is to filter out as much noise as you can. Also to find variables that make sense and meet very stringent requirements before using them.

Finally allowing for the fact that significance of variables not only have different weight depending on the sport and the time of the season they are in but also allowing for the idea that Bookmakers change their weighting of variables also. So you need an idea what the bookmakers are doing also.

That is a very short response to a very complex area.

 

With only 2 weeks until regular season its time to take a look at the subscription options for the upcoming football season. There are 3 options under the PayPal menu and all 3 have a 3 day free trial.

Being a member of our group entitles you to :

  1. All plays, setups, big move games sent out via twitter each day
  2. My top 5 NFL games of the week sent out on Saturday after 12:00 noon
  3. Access to my opinion on any game being played via email exchange
  4. A private chat to help set up your bankroll amount along with the proper bet sizing for your situation

The chat will be via a messaging system that is convention for both of us.

If you have any questions at all about subscribing and joining our group please send me an email and I will respond promptly.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

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