NFL Sunday Week 15

12:55 Update

In the afternoon games another big favorite where betting is lopsided.


Betting is 76% on Seattle and the line has move from -14 to -14.5. Variable strongly support Cleveland but not as strong as in the Tenn game. Models support seattle but not as much as they were in favor of New England. But again this is a double digit favorite where the model are keeping me away from the game. Thats two double digit dogs where the betting is in the high 70s on the favorite. Lets see if the models keep me away from two losers today!

9:30 Update

In the early NFL games today the highest % betting is on New England.

New England

Betting is 78% on New England with the line moving from -14 to -14.5. Typically double digit favorites do not fare very well in the NFL so I like to look for any excuse at all to wager on a double digit dog. Variables as Trump would say are “Huge” in favor of Tenn. For today Tenn variables are by far the most of any team. In addition as a bonus Tenn is in the bottom 5 for teams picked this week. But the models at -14.5 are strongly pointed to New England. The models have kept me away from some losers this season and in this instance I am staying away from this game. If the models were neutral I would pull the trigger on Tenn. But I am going to respect my models and Pass on the game completely.

Saturday the day started out with Duke under 151.5 in college hoops. The game was easily under and even when the game went into OT with the score 60-60 the under seemed still safe. But to make a long story short the final ended up 77-75 and we lost the under by a half a point:( And that pretty much is how the day went. Down about 3 units for the day.

The breakdown :
Hoop totals 1-3
Hoop Sides 1-1
Bowl Game wager #1 0-1. Byu got off to a slow start 0-35 …then scored 28 unanswered to come up short on the cover of +2.5. Wish I would of taken them the 2nd half!
NBA Setup 0-1
NFL Setup 1-0

The bright spot was Dallas +3.5 one of my picks in the Hilton contest was a winner and it was also a setup. So won my first game of 5 today for the Hilton NFL Contest. Not that I am in the running to hit the top 50 this year as I did last season but its for pride now:) Also there is a mini contest the last few weeks with a 10,000 prize but with some many entrants it usually takes 0 losses to split the prize.

My hilton picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Detroit +3
Oakland +3
Dallas +3.5 W
Phil +3.5
Bears +5.5

My fifth pick was between Atlanta +3 or the Bears. I had decided on Atlanta but as I was heading out the door remembered something about the two games I thought was significant and switched to the bears. The good news is that this was the easiest week for me of all weeks for picks. Not that that is going to guarantee good results but I had very good reasons to pick the top six teams.

Hilton NFL Contest top 5

Green Bay

Hilton NFL Contest Bottom 5
St Louis
Tampa Bay

My condolences if your fading the top five this season as to date they are 39-30-1. This reflects the public favorites have done better then usual this season. I am keeping my fingers crossed that this is a one year blip. We will see!

NFL % numbers for Sunday:
Green Bay 82
New England 79
Kansas City 77
Seattle 76
Arizona 74
Cincinnati 73
Houston 68
Carolina 63
San Diego 57
Buffalo 53
Jacksonville 52
Minn 51
Denver 50

Normally you want to be fading the top % teams and fading the Hilton top 5. If your just getting into handicapping one thing to keep in mind there are no hard and fast rules that guarantee successful results. Only techniques that can reduce the vig and in a small number of situations put the vig in your favor. But even then you need to battle variance. And unless your a real professional gambler you have to battle your psyche. I could go on and on but thats for another day.

A start in the right direction would be to sign up for the plays that this web site puts out.Other then getting the plays which will help put you on the right side of games you also get the Setups. Setups are games that alone would not produce a positive EV but can be used in a filter to help your results. Also you get my Hilton picks and NFL observations throughout the week rather then waiting until Sunday. And finally you have access to me virtually every day to discuss handicapping techniques, give opinions on games, to discuss the reasoning behind my thoughts and plays. This alone is worth much more then the small amount of the subscription service.

My goal is to not only produce positive EV plays but also educate my subscribers so that they learn what it takes to be a successful handicapper. Remember human nature is one of your biggest roadblocks to being a successful gambler.

A few other projects I am in the process of implementing this year is a private chat room for subscribers. This will allow me to discuss games Real Time. In addition will allow sharing of information between subscribers both before during and after games. While most services charge extra for this I do not intend to. Once implemented will be part of the low subscription fee.

I want to make 2016 a successful year for all subscribers. The goal is Successful and just as important entertaining. So look forward to this shortly after the first of the year.

So jump on board and hit the paypal button on the upper right and become part of a group of serious handicappers. The rest of this year and 2016 should be an exciting time for this service and all that follow us.

Subscribers I will be sending out plays 1 to 10 min before game time.

Good Luck To all today!

twitter: rickjsportplays
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