NFL Week 11 coming up..I need a nice run ..and it must start today!!!

Its official, we are now in a drawdown with the extent now being close to 10 units. Saturday we had five 1 unit plays and went 0-5. In NCAA FB we went 0-3 losing with  Maryland +13.5 , Illinois +10 and conn +8. None of the three was close. In the NHL we went 0-2 losing with Winn +144 and Nashville +102. Neither of these was close.

These drawdowns come from time to time and there is no way to avoid  them if your gambling daily. Looking back over the 13 years I have been posting both on this site and 2+2 forums the largest drawdown has been 30 units. That was in the NBA a number of years ago. It was one of the most brutal I have had in sports betting as it was a straight shot down. Then in College hoops last year we had a 20 unit downswing the last month of college hoops. Several years ago I had a 25 unit drawdown in MLB and then just this year we had an 18 unit drawdown in MLB at the start of the season.

Right now this drawdown is approaching 10 units. I only write this for the new bettors that have joined. Those that have been with me for awhile take these in stride as they know they can come at any time. But if you are new here I am sure there is some consternation which is just logical.

Myself I just take things as they come with my only concern being that I am using my handicapping techniques rather than some random picking of games.

I have mentioned this before but it always bears repeating. If you do not have an appropriate bet sizing routine you cannot win betting sports daily. Bet sizing not only allows you to manage things without emotion getting involved but also gives you a means to weather variance.

When you  decide to gamble daily variance becomes a partner. It sits in the background and can strike at any time. It can work both ways also. You can have incredibly good runs along with the opposite. A methodology for bet sizing allows you to remove the human element out of the equation or at least minimize it.

If you do not have a bet sizing routine you cannot win betting sports in the long run. It is really as simple as that. What I recommend is you decide on an amount to set aside for sports betting that if you lose it will cause you no concern or financial hardship. Then you pick a number of 2, 2.5 or 3% of this bankroll for your bet size. 3% is very aggressive. It may not appear to be much but the difference between 2 and 3 percent is like night and day. Unless you’re a hardened gambler I would tend towards the 2% number.

One other thing about variance. In order to experience the entire range of the bell curve, you would have to live an infinite number of years. The sample size during a persons betting lifespan is so small that no one ever experiences the full range of variance. So there is a bit of chance to where you are going to fall into the bell curve during your lifespan.

But you can minimize variance by maximizing your EV. The higher the EV the less effect negative variance will have. So if miraculously you have a system that produces a 30% ROI variance is not going to be an issue. But, in sports betting 5% is pushing the outer edges of what to expect in terms of an ROI. But if you get to that level variance will have less an effect than say  at a 1% ROI.

I take these drawdowns in stride. I have experienced drawdowns playing limit poker that would test the most experienced among us. But that is for another day.

I am here to help not only in producing plays but also to help you in setting up an appropriate bankroll amount and choosing the % number to apply to it. I have discussed this with many bettors on an individual basis and would be happy to answer any questions. Just send me an email and we can figure this out together.

In the NFL today my Hilton Picks in the order I liked them at the time:

Bears +7.5

Cleveland +8

Rams +2.5

Phil +6.5

San Fran +13

Yes, San Fran:) I had no other game I liked to put in as my 5th pick other than San Fran.

The Hilton top 5 last week went back to form with a 0-5 week. That brings their top 5 record to 15-33-2 or an amazing 31.25%. So all you needed to do this year is fade the top 5 and you would be staring at a 68.75% record!!!

% numbers for this morning in the NFL:

NE 84

Pitt 82

Oak 77

Miami 74

Seattle 72

Detroit 69

Giants 68

Arizona 65

GB 59

KC 58

Tenn 56

Dallas 56

Buff 51

I went 3-2 last week with my Hilton NFL Picks and now stand at 26-22-2 or 54.16%. They add a 1/2 pt for a tie so I am sitting at 27 points. I am sitting in the top 300 out of almost 2000 entrants.

I need a nice run now as going 2-3 several weeks have moved me away from the top 50.

So far we have 2 one unit plays pending.

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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