NFL Week 13, Circa NFL Picks for today, Week 12 recap and comments on trading methods all posted

The NFL Contest went well last week going 3-2 in both contests, and 8-7 in the all spread contest.

In the Circa contest I sit at 37-28 or 56.92% against the spread. In the My bookie contest I sit at 

40-24-1 or 61.53%.   In the all spread contest where I pick every game against the spread I sit at

96-85-0 or 53.03 %.

 

My Circa picks this week are:

Bears +7.5

Houston +10

Jets +7

Pitt +4.5

Seattle +3.5

In the Westgate NFL Super Contest the top 5 picks went 0-5!  That moves them to 24-32-1 Season to Date. Fading is still the way to go:

The Top 5 this week are:

Miami

Denver

Indy

Buffalo

New England

I am fading 1 of the top 5 this week, and not on any of them. Not a bad spot to be.

 

About a year ago I added to this service most of my trading that I make during the day. I included this as a 0 charge

addon to give extra value to the service for those that trade the markets.

My trades consist of a wide variety of methods, but most are in the following group:
1 Mean Reversion trades
2. Swing Trades medium term
3. Day trades (Not very many)
4. Income trades 
5. Short put income producing trades

By far the two most profitable have been since I started posting these are the income trades and the 2 day short put trades.

The 2 could not be any more different.  The 2 day short put trades I place on Thursday morning with a friday expiration. They have several characteristics: 1. Carefully screened as to the underlying health of the stock I am trading the option on 2. A strike price that is 20 to 30 % of the stock price at the time I make the trade  3. No earnings for the next 7 days  4. Enough liquidity that there is no problem getting in and out of the trade.

In managing these, there are two rules of thought. The first is rolling it over if the price of the stock looks like it is going to close through the strike price or taking delivery of the stock and selling calls against it for income.  There is a trade off to these that you should be aware of. 1. You give up a lot of EV by rolling and at times your going to take a huge loss. 2. But the capital requirements are substantially less then the take delivery method.

My view is if you screened correctly the taking delivery and selling calls for income is the better approach. However, saying that the capital requirements can be rather large.  You need to be knowledgeable in this area to understand what I am saying. I am here to a
answer any questions regarding this. But my bottom line is if you have the capital taking delivery has the best return.

The Income trades revolve around Closed end funds trading at a discount to Net Asset Value.  The things they have in common is that most produce a rate of return in the 8% per year area, and most have a substantial discount to NAV when placed.  In addition as in the short put sales, I have a screen I use that gives me the best of the bunch to trade.

It has been as solid a performer as you can get with most of the trades producing not only 8% a year but also a nice capital gain when exiting the trade.

Since I started posting my 2 day short put trades I have had 367 trades, with a 346 -21 win rate or almost 95%. The profit factor on these is 3.86%. This is a very solid system, and as we get more trades under our belt the more confirmation there is as to the validity of the method.  Drawdowns have been minimal and when they happen it takes a very short time to make it back.

The income trades have produced 50 trades with 45 winners and 5 losers. That is a 90% win rate and a profit factor of 16.11 . Not near as many trades as the 2 day short put trades but very promising numbers.

To get an example of what good screening will do for you I had 4 short put sales last week. On Friday we had an 800 pt down move in the Dow, and yet none of my short put trades came close to the strike price.  That is when you know you are using excellent screening methods!!!

In addition about an hour before the open I post my pre market comments to subscribers on slack.

All my trading is put out only via Slack.

The cost of subscribing is only $49.00 a month. Considering that most handicapping and stock services charge many times more then that for just one sport, I would say this is one of the best values out there right now.

 

You have access to every one of the sports plays which now include college hoops that just started. I am off to a great start in college”
hoops with Sides 6-2 and Totals 7-3. Combined record  12-5

To subscribe all one needs to do is 1.go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com 2. select the paypal drop down menu on the first page 3. Select the monthly plan of 49.00 a month and follow the paypal prompts. I will have you added to the email list, slack channels and if you wish to my private twitter feed.

All of the subscription options have a 3 day free trial and if you decide later not to subscribe within the 3 days, you will not be charged. Other wise the service is a month to month service.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

 

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