Week 13 started off with an 0-3 day for contest picks, but I recovered winning the last 2. That brings my contest record to:
Circa 39-31 or 55.71%
My bookie 42-27-1 or 60.86%
All Spread contest: 101-93 52.06%
Since I started the All Spread contest I have been closer to 55% but this year I was under 50% for some time but had a spurt that sent me over the 50% mark. Hey its tough to pick every game against the spread:)
This week in the Circa Contest my picks are:
Balt +3
Houston +8.5
Detroit +10
Buff +3.5
Bears +12.5
This week was by far the toughest of the 14 weeks to pick out 5 games.
In the Westgate NFL Supercontest the top 5 picks went 3-2 last week bringing there record to 30-34-1.
This week their top 5 picks are:
Buffalo
Denver
Cleveland
Washington
Arizona
I am fading two of the top 5 picks and on their top pick:( How could buffalo be any good this week?
Time is running out for me in the contests. I need a massive finish to cash. Lets see if I can start it out this week with the toughest week yet for me.
My 2 day short put sales just keep coming through at a phenomenal pace. They have become almost automatic income producers now each week. I could only find 2 this week but none came close to hitting the strike price , so a $200.00 income pickup this week.
About a year ago I added to this service most of my trading that I make during the day. I included this as a 0 charge
addon to give extra value to the service for those that trade the markets.
My trades consist of a wide variety of methods, but most are in the following group:
1 Mean Reversion trades
2. Swing Trades medium term
3. Day trades (Not very many)
4. Income trades
5. Short put income producing trades
By far the two most profitable have been since I started posting these are the income trades and the 2 day short put trades.
The 2 could not be any more different. The 2 day short put trades I place on Thursday morning with a friday expiration. They have several characteristics: 1. Carefully screened as to the underlying health of the stock I am trading the option on 2. A strike price that is 20 to 30 % of the stock price at the time I make the trade 3. No earnings for the next 7 days 4. Enough liquidity that there is no problem getting in and out of the trade.
In managing these, there are two rules of thought. The first is rolling it over if the price of the stock looks like it is going to close through the strike price or taking delivery of the stock and selling calls against it for income. There is a trade off to these that you should be aware of. 1. You give up a lot of EV by rolling and at times your going to take a huge loss. 2. But the capital requirements are substantially less then the take delivery method.
My view is if you screened correctly the taking delivery and selling calls for income is the better approach. However, saying that the capital requirements can be rather large. You need to be knowledgeable in this area to understand what I am saying. I am here to a
answer any questions regarding this. But my bottom line is if you have the capital taking delivery has the best return.
The Income trades revolve around Closed end funds trading at a discount to Net Asset Value. The things they have in common is that most produce a rate of return in the 8% per year area, and most have a substantial discount to NAV when placed. In addition as in the short put sales, I have a screen I use that gives me the best of the bunch to trade.
It has been as solid a performer as you can get with most of the trades producing not only 8% a year but also a nice capital gain when exiting the trade.
Since I started posting my 2 day short put trades I have had 367 trades, with a 346 -21 win rate or almost 95%. The profit factor on these is 3.86%. This is a very solid system, and as we get more trades under our belt the more confirmation there is as to the validity of the method. Drawdowns have been minimal and when they happen it takes a very short time to make it back.
The income trades have produced 50 trades with 45 winners and 5 losers. That is a 90% win rate and a profit factor of 16.11 . Not near as many trades as the 2 day short put trades but very promising numbers.
To get an example of what good screening will do for you I had 4 short put sales last week. On Friday we had an 800 pt down move in the Dow, and yet none of my short put trades came close to the strike price. That is when you know you are using excellent screening methods!!!
In addition about an hour before the open I post my pre market comments to subscribers on slack.
All my trading is put out only via Slack.
The cost of subscribing is only $49.00 a month. Considering that most handicapping and stock services charge many times more then that for just one sport, I would say this is one of the best values out there right now.
You have access to every one of the sports plays which now include college hoops that just started. I am off to a great start in college”
hoops with Sides 6-2 and Totals 7-3. Combined record 12-5
To subscribe all one needs to do is 1.go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com 2. select the paypal drop down menu on the first page 3. Select the monthly plan of 49.00 a month and follow the paypal prompts. I will have you added to the email list, slack channels and if you wish to my private twitter feed.
All of the subscription options have a 3 day free trial and if you decide later not to subscribe within the 3 days, you will not be charged. Other wise the service is a month to month service.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
