NFL week 2 Circa picks, Week 1 recap, some thoughts on various other ideas posted

Week 1 was a good week in the NFL for me.

I went 3-1 in plays, 3-2 in the Circa contest and 9-8 in the contest where I pick every game against the spread. So off to a good start!

I have sent out two plays to subscribers so far today.

My Circa picks this week in no particular order are:

Houston +13
Phil +3
Jacksonville +6
Jets +6
Balt +3.5

The Westgate top 5 last week went 2-3. As I indicated , typically it is correct to fade the top 5. Although recently it has not been as strong as previous years.

The Westgate top 5 this week is:






I am on 1 of the top 5 and Not fading any of them.  Usually I like to be fading at least 2 of them. So we will see:)

The bottom 5 this week is:






In trading I made a fortuitous shift toward the end of last week that I typically do not do. I was long SPY and a Swiss ETF as part of mean reversion trading.

However, As Friday was options expiration and historically Sept has been very weak after the open on options expiration day, I exited my two longs and went short SPY. This is contrary to a well established mean reversion system but I felt the circumstances made it a reasonable shift.

Combine that with this coming week tending to be the weakest of the year and it made more sense.

One could also discuss the political backdrop that also made this reasonable, but I wish to stay away from Politics on this site. I have had both liberals and conservatives follow my picks over the years. I doubt any wish to hear any views I have that may be contrary to their accepted thinking on issues. So, best to keep this objectively based on probabilities.

I had 4 short put trades on Thursday and they were an easy 4-0 for +$470.00. These have been as solid a method as I have ever seen. Since I started publishing them on slack I have had a 94% win rate with a profit factor of 3.72. Drawdowns have been minimal.

As a subscriber you have access to not only my sports plays and discussion but also my trading.

To sign up just 1.go to 2. find the paypal dropdown menu 3. subscribe to the monthly.  It is a good value and all have a 3 day free trial in the event you reconsider.

Good Luck Today for Week 2 in the NFL


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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