NFL Week 4…..10-5 In the Hilton NFL Super Contest!!!

4:45 Update

A good day in the NFL with both of my 1 unit plays not only covering but winning outright. In addition with New Orleans making their comeback that leaves me with 3-1 going for this weekend  for the Hilton Contest. That makes me 13-6 going into the Monday night game where I have the Giants +4.5.

But we still have one more game left today:



Betting is 73% on the Home Favorite with the line moving from -5-116 to -3-125. Models slightly favor KC. Variables are mixed. Public betting favors KC however the line has moved enough that the edge that might of been there is most likely gone. A bit late to only be taking +3 on KC.  This game was one of the games I considered for my 5th pick but as I explained earlier I finally decided on New Orleans. In any event the game is a pass for me.



This weekend we had two plays in college football. Toledo +3.5 won 53-55 while Memphis +14.5 lost 28-48. Both games were pretty exciting. Memphis had their chances and even had the game down to 6 pts late in the 3rd. But turnovers did them in. Also I mentioned the Wake Forest NC State game as having some very weird numbers and line movement. Looks like the steam had the game figured out perfect!!!

There were also 3 Big Move Games:

Colorado +161( PItching Change)

Arizona -128

Atlanta +135

Closing lines:

Colorado +161( Pitching Change)

Arizona -123

Atlanta +165

One game strongly against us and the other slightly with us.


Off to a fast start in the Hilton NFL Super Contest with my first 3 weeks, 4-1, 2-3, 4-1!!! Now all I need is a 5-0 day:)

My Picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Bears +3

Rams +8

San Fran +2.5

Giants +4.5

New Orleans +4

The first three were obvious to me. Giants no so obvious but still stood out from the others. New Orleans however was a compromise pick. I also looked at Buffalo and KC. After quite a be of digging I decided that even though New Orleans had 50% of the betting on them they were the way to go. In the past I would never have choose them for this reason. But KC and Buffalo had some very big negatives so rather then go with one of them I picked New Orleans who despite the public numbers had everything else going for it. It will be interesting to see how it works out!

If you decided to start going with the top 5 Hilton Super Contest picks after the fantastic way they performed last year my condolences!!! The top 5 picks have gone 0-10 the last two weeks and sits now at 3-12. Typically you can count on the top 5 to be games to fade. Last year was an outlier in my opinion. But its early. But 0-10 that is hard to do. Although I remember years and years ago went I was running pretty good in football and “on top of the world” so to speak out of nowhere I had an 0-10 day. Talk about shock therapy, what a way to come back to earth:) My local bookie told me he had never seen that before and of course how everyone else killed him:)

Top 5 this week:




New England

San Fran

Bottom 5:

Cinci (W)

Miami (L)




If you want to do your own handicapping in the NFL I cannot think of a better place to search for value then fading the top 5 and being with the bottom 5. The only thing you need to be aware of are key numbers. If the last has past key numbers you need to discard the game. You will be amazed at how you can turn around loosing in the NFL year after year to being a winner most years.

Myself my methods are more complex:) Nothing simple for me!

So this week I am with one of the top 5:( I am not with any of the bottom 5.

% numbers in the NFL this morning:

Denver 80

Detroit 78

Carolina 69

New England 69

Dallas 67

Indy 66

Houston 66

Oakland 65

Arizona 63

Pitt 62

Minn 61

New Orleans 54

Jets 53

Cleve 52

Today I have sent out 2 one unit plays along with 1 big move game.

We have closed out week 5 of college football and are just beginning the bulk of week 4 in the NFL. The NFL so far has been solid at 5-2 for one unit plays on sides while College football is off to a slow start.


Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks










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