Week 5 in the NFL turned out hinging on Indy last Monday night. It was a cover so I went 3-2 in the Circa bringing my record there to
16-9 or a 64% pace. That is not a bad place to be heading into week 6. Unfortunately this week was a nightmare week to handicap for me.
But it started out good as Phil was +7 in the 2nd contest I am in. Up until this weeks my picks were identical. But with Phil moving to +7 I now have a winner and stand at 18-8 or 69.2%!
My picks this week in the Circa are:
New England +3.5
In the other contest where you also pick 5 against the spread each week my picks are :
Phil +7 W
Raiders looked much better then they do now, and they started looking worse before I placed my Circa picks. So, Wash and the Bears are two differences in the contests.
In the all spread contest I have been hugging the 50% line and sit at 40-40.
In the Westgate NFL Contest the top 5 had a good week going 3-1-1 getting them back to the break even market after a disastrous start.
The top 5 this week:
I am fading two of the picks in the Circa contest and two of the picks in the other contest. Right where I like to be:)
All things being equal you want to be on the fade side of the top 5 picks.
On the investing side of the service a great week last week. I had 3 short put sales that all easily cashed. These are trades I put
on Thursday morning with a Friday expiration. The profit was a bit higher then usual because of AVDL 7.50 puts that an unusually high premium to sell. So a +850.00 2 day trade.
Then I have a medium term short put sale that cashed in HEAR for +600.00.
Short puts are an excellent way to pick up cash, but of course they have their risks also. I try to minimize those by my screening methods and limiting most of them to a Thursday trade with a next day expiration. Since posting these they have exceeded my best expectations.
I have almost 400 trades now and have a win rate of 94.5% and a profit factor of 3.75. The drawdowns have been minimal.
Also I received a question from a subscriber I would like to share.
No doubt it was prompted by the MLB season.
The question is essentially why is it you do much better on sports that have spreads rather the money lines?
The answer as I see it has to do with VARIANCE. For the 20+ years I have been posting my picks the variance on spread games has been about 20% of ML games.
You have to think as betting money lines as flipping a coin with a .10% edge. The odds are 50/50 and you have an edge, but the swings are going to be substantial as a result of variance. In addition, the public is not so transparent on ML games as they are on spread games. So the contrarian approach is not going to be as strong.
In some instances the “sharps” have removed most edges in ML sports. So you might ask, why wager on them? For me, I just need an edge, I am used to high variance having played limit poker for many years. I take it in stride. I can go through 4 racks and not be rattled. As long as the game is good and I am playing at my best I view variance as part of the endeavor.
A good friend was sitting next to me when I lost 4 racks in a very short time. Great hands that got dusted. And he asked “Isn’t it time to quit”? My reply was what is the difference between going through 100 big bets in 4 hours or 3 weeks? Variance is what it is. you are not going to eliminate it by picking an artificial stopping time.
The same applies to quitting when you quickly get in the lead. If you are flipping a coin with someone and getting 6/5 on a coin flip, would you quit because you had a big lead? If so, gambling is not for you:) The time to quit is when your opponent has had enough or runs out of money.
Saying that, not everyone is equipped to handle gambling that has a high variance to it. And that is something everyone has to decide for themselves. If you fall into that category you would want to stay away from ML sports. If you cannot take losing 30 units in stride save yourself some grief.
The issues of course are more complex then that, but this is a good start on a complicated question. I always welcome questions.
I have sent out 1 NFL play today to subscribers.
Its not too late to jump on board. We have plenty of NFL and College FB left. In addition, the NHL is in full swing and NBA regular season is almost here.
Just go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com and choose the monthly option on the paypal menu. That one has the most value, and every option has a 3 day free trial
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks