NFL Wk 8, Circa Picks, Week 7 and season to date recap, comments on trading all posted

In both the Circa Contest and MyBookie contest I went 2-3 last week. I was 1-3 heading into the Monday night game and salvaged the week for my contest picks.

That puts me at 19-16 in the Circa Contest or 54.28% and 22-13 in the MyBookie contest or 62.85%

I need to pick it up in the Circa as much more time languishing around this area will put me in a tough spot to finish in the top 100.

MyBookie on the other hand is in a perfect spot for a 2nd half run into the money.

I am also in an all spread contest that since I entered a few years ago have been around the 55% level Against the spread, picking every game vs the spread.

This season however I sit at 51-55 although I won the Thursday game which is not included.

Today my Circa picks are :

Miami +14

Jets +11

Houston +16

Bears +4

Giants +9.5

After the first 4 picks it became a real crap shoot to come up with a 5th pick. I chose the Giants as it appeared to me

to be the best of no good alternatives. Miami , Jets and Houston seemed like obvious picks to me, while the bears somewhat below the first 3.

The top 5 picks in the Westgate have been on fire since the slow start they had. They went 4-1 last week with the Season to date record at

The Westgate top 5 is as follows:

Minn +7.5

Indy -1

New Eng +6

Detr +3

Buff -13.5

I am fading one of the top 5 and not with any of them. Not a bad place to be as historically the top 5 should be considered a positions to fade rather then join in.

Plays for the season are a disappointing 8-11.  So far this week I have sent out no plays. But, so far a few games look pretty good to me.

On the investing side of the service I could find no short put sales on Thursday.  The Vix has stayed low for a very long time. Typically you can find isolated stocks that provide some safe premium to sell for nice returns. But it has not been so easy as it was about 7 months ago when I started.

Since I began posting my 2 day short put trades my record now stands at 356-22 or a 94.18% win rate and a profit factor of 4.52.

Now, the sample size is still rather small at 378 trades. But it gets larger and larger every month.

What is interesting is the lack of any significant drawdowns, and the lack of any long sideways movement.

I have written some on this method I developed when sports was shut down, and will post something more on this method in the near future. The bottom line is it gives someone with a modicum of funds who trades with a decent option broker, a chance to pick up significant annualized returns.

The other methods I have used since starting to post these trades are, Mean reversion trades, Income trades and pure swing trades.

By far the most profitable has been the 2 day short put trades. Income investing has been solid producing on avg 8% a year in dividends along with additional capital gains when the position is sold.

The mean reversion trades have been solid also, although they do not come along that often.

The swing trades have been spotty:)  Most likely something I need to improve on. But the short puts have consumed me trying to fine tune this method.

As a subscriber to my 20+ year service you now have access to most of my trades via my Slack Channel.

So for only $49.00 a month you get plays, discussion and roadmaps that cover virtually all sports at the time of your subscription. And now an option method that has had spectacular real time results.

Since I started 20+ years ago, I am one of the few individuals or companies who have had 100% transparency. No matter what the results all are readily available for all to see.

Sports betting is one of the hardest areas to make money consistently. The EV is there, but you have to weather a high learning  curve, Variance, and human nature that will sabotage you at every turn. My site guided many through this crazy maze:)

Its not too late to jump on board. We have plenty of NFL and College FB left. In addition, the NHL is in full swing and NBA regular season is almost here.

Just go to and choose the monthly option on the PayPal menu. That one has the most value, and every option has a 3 day free trial

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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