No Man's Land in the Stock Market - Rickj's Handicapping Picks

No Man’s Land in the Stock Market

7:45 Update

Monday we went 1-2 on Plays winning with Wake forest +3.5  and losing with Ark pine bluff +4.5 and Tex San Ant +3.

We had 5 setups going 3-2. Broken down they were 2-1 on NBA totals, 0-1 on college hoop totals and 1-0 on college hoop sides.

Today shapes up to be a busy day just taking a look at the various games today. Right now it appears to have a high number of good looking plays to me. But it’s early of course.

A few comments to share:

“Hey Rick

Should I keep my units the same for baseball ? I assume the answer is yes but that sport scares me. ?

Thanks and hope all is well.”

My Response:

“I do. As long as you use the 2% method it softens the downswings. Of course, not much will soften a 20 to 30 unit downswing. Keep in mind that even with the changes I made the variance is going to be higher in baseball.

I have a pretty high-risk tolerance. If you want you could set aside a separate betting bankroll for baseball as opposed to the other sports. And then start afresh with the 2%. In addition, it would not be that far wrong to do that with every sport. But you do want to keep the 2% number unchanged.
Myself. I just lump them all together in one bankroll. “
Let me add that this is the most important message I can give on this site. Absent an approach that eliminates guesswork and emotion from bet sizing you do not have a chance to succeed. Now I know that sounds very dogmatic but nothing could be more certain than that statement. Just think, aside from handicapping failures why do you think that most people lose betting on sports?  If you do not know or have no idea then you are at the 1st step in a long process of learning. So my advice then while you are learning and accumulating knowledge takes my word for it.
I am even going to go so far to say if you do not have the discipline to follow that in some form or another then do not subscribe to the service. My goal is to make all my subscribers winning sports bettors year after year.
One more:
“sticking to totals sounds like a good idea lately”
My response:
“If you are doing the techniques I explain in the previous post then that statement would not be one that would even come to mind. There is no hot and cold. There is simply variance. And to make it clearer there will always be variance. It’s similar to the poker players that keep score by the day or even hand to hand. That method drains you. it takes away from you the ability to have fun and focus on what is really important.
We have had a 4 or 5 unit pullback, now and for me that does not even qualify as a drawdown:) Its a blip for lack of a better word. The last 4 months everyone following my plays is spoiled to a degree as we really have had no drawdown to speak of. That is not the way things usually work. Typically you have an upward slanting equity trendline with various degrees of pullbacks over the course of your sports betting. That is why it is important to keep track of your results!”
Finally, let me say for most its a constant battle between human nature and good betting techniques. It is no easy go fighting human nature. Especially habits that have been ingrained and perhaps reinforced by other issues. I am here to help with that. When I tell you my goal is to make all my subscribers winning sports bettors year after year I mean it. And for those that have been following me for the last 13 years you know that is accurate:)
Back to work for me Tip off time in 1 hour.
Rick

 

Yes, that is where we are at now. After the dip yesterday, we are in neutral territory. In addition, the market is gapping up about .4% which even makes the day a bit more neutral.

Yesterday I had 3 trades that favored a dip and quickly made my profits and exited. That is the nature of the markets we are dealing with right now. Honestly, I do not care to trade this way as it requires a very high focus and concentration on what is going on each day.

I prefer the long long trends that make it easy to make money. But we have just finished one of those the last several years. So I doubt another is coming along tomorrow!

So at the open it appears that we are going to get a gap up. With the way the markets are trading now, I would assume that gap gets filled early or close to it. Then we will see. My working assumption is this dip is a buy right now. I want to see the market take a least one more downswing from here before considering longs. As far as mean reversion it will take more then another dip from here. So it is the short swing trades to be scouring for right now.

Hoops start early today but I fooled them today and woke up at 4:30. Its amazing how much work you can get done when is dark and quiet with just you and your computer. It is one of my favorite times:)

Ok back to work.

And for a laugh this morning:

https://www.facebook.com/ILoveDogs5/photos/a.509155169188289.1073741828.509142559189550/810630915707378/?type=3

Good Luck Today in the markets

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

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