Non Farm Payrolls reported and Down we go!

5:00 Update

One more game in the NBA tonight:

San Antonio
Oklahoma City

Betting is 72% on the road Favorite and the line has moved from Oklahoma city -1.5 to San Antonio -2-108. This is almost identical to the early game except there is no reverse line move. The line has jumped 3.5 pts. If you like San Antonio I would say your a bit late to the party. Models are neutral and public betting slightly favors Okl City. But slightly. I am passing on the game.

3:30 Update

First game tonight in the NBA:

Cleveland
Atlanta

Betting is 77% on the road favorite and the line has moved from -3 to -2.5-103. Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Atlanta but very slightly.

Also, you have a pretty solid reverse line move in favor of Atlanta. This is a game where if your handicapping points to Atlanta you could use this to sway you to that side. If your handicapping points to Cleveland you might consider passing on the game. Myself nothing is strong enough for me to wager on the game. So I am passing.

12:00 Update

A wild day in the markets but right now it looks like a turnaround Friday. Still an hour to go.

Thursday there were no plays but tonight there are several games that look pretty good to me with one being in the NBA. But it’s still early so we will see.

I have added a line and score widget to the site and am ordering one that is a bit more comprehensive. If anyone has any comments regarding the new addition to the site let me know.

Also, I have a new play setup for baseball that I am going to start sending out. However it has not been proven in real time but it backtested out so well that I am going to send it out as a setup. It will not go to + or – for plays but I will keep the results separate for that setup. You really never know until you get a method that passes in real time. But this one looks very good and is logical. So starting today when you get a MLB setup you will know what I am talking about. And again I will not be betting these.

I might add however if this does pass the real-time test it has the potential to turn into one of the best play setups for MLB. We will see:)

However if you’re also doing your own handicapping you could use this as a filter to swing you one way or another on the game. And as always if you have any questions regarding this just send me an email.

I also received an email regarding whether I will be around during the World series of poker this year. I have not missed it since I have been here in Vegas however this might be the first year. My drive to play poker has vanished so unless I get a change of heart I will be continuing to do what I have been doing …Trading Stocks and handicapping. And of course taking care of my two dogs:) They are much more fun to be around then some of the poker players here in Vegas! Not only that they are most likely smarter than a few of the Omaha 8 regulars at the Bellagio.

Plays will go out shortly before game time.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

The market is now off 1/2 % after NonFarm payrolls came out. Now if your thinking you can predict the direction of the market based upon the report then you had better think again.

If the nonfarm payrolls show a substantial increase then that would be good for the country? But in market terms that means a tightening by the fed and that is bad? But if the report comes out very low showing a decrease in jobs you would expect that to be bad for the country? But of course in market terms that means the Fed will most likely ease and that is good? Now if it’s too high or too low then you have other considerations.

And if you have a headache after reading that then your right with me as I have a headache even thinking about it.

So without knowing what the report said I suspect it meant job increase and that is why the market is tanking right now. In addition, of course, it’s May and the sell in May crowd is in full force. On the bright side if your long sentiment is much too bearish for a washout right now. I still suspect we get at least one more push higher to convince everyone that the bull is still alive and all is well. Then it’s look out below for awhile. That is the scenario I am wagering on.

All it will take would be any major country to announce more stimulus and off we go. But you can rule out the U.S. as our Fed is back to talking rate hikes. The last Fed speaker said 3 rate hikes this year. Does the Fed know you do not tighten in an election year if you want the same party to stay in as president? Guess they forgot that one. If I were Hillary I would be picking up the phone and tell them that if they want job security when I become president they best stop this madness! But I imagine she has already done that unless she has other fires to put out:)

And of course, I no way intend by these comments any opinions on politics whatsoever. This site is a politically neutral site!

It’s time to start looking again in earnest for some more mean reversion trades. But I do not want to put them on until later in the day. No reason to be part of a washout to the downside.But I will remain flexible on that one.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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