Thursday we lost our 1 play we had and it was in the NHL. There was also a setup in the NBA and it lost. So our downswing continues although it really is not much of one.
I received and email this morning from a subscriber I wanted to share because I think it has educational value:
This email is prompted by the variance tweets this morning. I have no issue with that message and am in no way complaining about results. However, I do see the lack of number of plays, especially in college hoops, as having a negative impact on the value of the subscription with, especially with FB winding down.
I’m a $50 (never more than$100) dollar bettor that doesn’t bet hockey (not convenient/20 cent line) and who begrudgingly takes some NBA plays (have fortunately ducked the Lakers and Sixers:)). I am familiar with your take on conference play vs. non-conference and the big dance. Is there reason for optimism in the coming month, or do you think it makes sense to just skip Feb. and sign back up for conference tourneys?”
“If your betting 50 then its costing you 1 unit a month. If your betting 100.00 then its costing you 1/2 Unit a month.
Its an easy decision if your betting 100 at 50 its a little closer although it just depends what your looking for. But your going to find it extremely difficult if not impossible to find a handicapping service that is going to have a better chance at producing profits year in and year out.
As far as betting the lakers last night. Those are setups I do not bet them. So unless your doing your own handicapping you should not of been considering the lakers.
Also we are at 62% on college hoops this month. You really should not expect much better then that. There are less picks during conference play but the ones that there are usually are pretty solid.
Now saying all that if you have any reservations at all about continuing on with the service then do not resubscribe. I in now way intend to talk people into staying. But you need to know that variance is part of the deal. Its going to be a little less with me but its still going to be there. If it gives you concern then this service is not for you at any time. Regardless of the time of the season or year there is always going to be variance.
I have learned to keep score at the end of the year and not give day to day any thought at all. But I know not everyone is geared that way. But to be successful in betting you either have to be geared that way or not bet. Its not worth the aggravation.
Hope to see you continue on but if not best of luck to you.”
The above is pretty explanatory. There just is no way to get around the day to day variance. You would think the service was doing terrible but in reality the NHL is ahead a little over 10 units and college hoops is ahead around 14 units. That is 24 units to the plus side in those two sports in just a few months. But human nature is a strange thing. It really is not geared for gambling. So unless you get your human nature under control its going to sabotage you at every turn. I wrote about that over 10 years ago in my Must read portion and the same is as true today.
As the markets are plunging to new lows 10 min before the open murderers row has begun. Dudley just got done calming the markets by announcing inflation is still a concern and our economy is smoking hot! Rate hikes still on track!!! Incompetency at its finest. Bureaucrats in the Fed are now completely out of control!!!
Things could be worse however….especially if your long Chipotle! They have closed all of there stores!
Yesterday I said that a bounce was very close and it was important to see the character of the bounce to draw conclusions of where the market is heading short term. I got the answer this morning when I woke up…The market is gaping down almost 2% an hour before the open. My guess today is going to be a huge washout on the downside. Its unexpected and this reversal of a one day rally being so dramatic fear will be at a fever pitch today. My guess is if you hang in there today there will be some short term buys towards the end of the day.
I know if you are in the markets and over extended right now your about ready to panic full time. Its just human nature. If you in that frame of mind right now….you have an hour before the open…spend 20 min and turn on some soft classical music …meditate for the 20 min. You will be in a much better frame of mind when the market opens. If your a finely tuned machine then no need to take 20 min off…just plan your day as you would any other day.
Now if you have been following this site and are still over extended and thinking about doubling down to get even. If you cannot control this impulse…sell everything right now….and quit trading for at least a month. Walk away and take a break. People go broke in the markets all the time. Do not be one of them. There is no mercy here if you have no control.
So what we had yesterday was a head fake rally. Traders got long into the rally and now wake up this morning and are severely underwater. What will these traders do? SELL!!! Especially if we break yesterdays lows which it looks like it will be a walk in the park for that to happen. This I suspect is going to turn into the worst day yet for 2016 and that considering the start is saying something.
Yesterday I was busy taking profits on some short swing trades and lightening up on some of my portfolio trades. So My portfolio of stocks is smaller and my swing trades are only 3 right now with several mean reversion index trades added into the fray. But all in all I am very lightly long the market so today will not effect me in the large scheme of things:)
In other words I am trading at a level I can look at the open with no concern except interest in how the market is moving. That is what you should strive for. The secret to gambling, trading, etc is to trade at a level where losing is inconsequential. That way your decisions will be solid rather then based upon fear. Its the same for poker, betting sports, or trading the level that you wager has to be one that does not effect your mental status or bankroll in the grand scheme of things. That is the most important advice I can give to people that intend on doing this day in and day out. If you do not abide by this its going to get you.
Today I just watch and look for opportunities towards the close. Nothing dramatic but just something that looks like an excellent mean reversion trade. Breakout trades to the upside most likely will be non existent today!
US-William Dudley Speaks – 08:00 AM
US-John Williams Speaks – 10:00 AM
US-Rob Kaplan Speaks – 12:00 PM
That is the killer lineup for fed speakers this morning. Lets see if they hitch and start talking maybe no rate hike! My guess is not a chance.
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