“To be or not to be ” Is the Stock Market now ready for a Fall???

10:00 Update

Sunday we had an 0-3 day starting with Illinois +4 losing in double OT: (  Our setups in college hoop totals went 1-2.

I wanted to get this out early today as I have decided what I am going to do for baseball:

We are talking about April 1st until the end of October but the NFL Begins preseason mid august and regular season Sept 1st.  So we are talking about a 5 month period where there is no overlap with a major sport.

First let me say I have received a number of replies from do nothing to give it out completely free. So the answers while helpful do not really lead me to a decision except that there are a number of you that are very thankful of the work and focus I put into handicapping every day.

Here is what I am going to do with Baseball:

  1. The monthly subscription is going to stay the same at 49.00 a month.
  2. That means for the 5 month period you will have paid $245.00.
  3. I will keep track of my plays by the Pinnacle line and post the plays by the pinnacle line at the time I send out the plays
  4. In the event I have a losing 5 months from April 1st to August 31st then all subscribers that began the season and stayed through to August 31st will receive a refund of 130.00.
  5. So there is one requirement to qualify for the refund.
    1. You have to have been a subscriber from 4/1 until 8/31

That’s really about it. I tried to make it fair and also make it something that I could keep track of easily. Compared to the other services giving out baseball the subscription is nominal. On the other, hand my track record in baseball has been sketchy. But I am confident enough in the changes I made which are very similar to the changes I made in the NHL that I can make this offer.

One other thing. If anyone is concerned that I may not give a refund at the end of the 5 months if I have a losing 5 months then my advice is please do not sign up. If you have any doubts our concerns along those lines again please do not sign up.

Ok, there it is. You need to do nothing to be in on this offer. If you signed on April 1st then you are a part of it if not then your not.

If anyone has any questions do not hesitate to email me. We still have 3 weeks or so until opening day.

Rick

 

I do not mean to get Shakespearean on you but after a 0-3 day on sports plays yesterday that included a double OT loss with Illinois +4 I am a bit mean spirited this morning:)

The markets are off about 1/3 of a percent 1.5 hours before the open. What I look at is mixed right now with the exception that everything I look at points to the markets being overbought. Some severely overbought and others moderately. I am long TLT and short CELG. So my bias on my trades right now is to the short side of the market.

I put these trades on the middle of last week and am pretty much even on these trades right now. If we get the short-term dip I am expecting this week then they both should do fine. Also, I am looking to add to my short exposure by with of SPY or some stocks that are setting up nicely for a dip.

I have been following the markets for some time now. And I have found that the best approach is very similar as to how I do my sports handicapping.  Use a backtested analytical approach that incorporates variables that have been reliable in the past. These variables also have to make sense in a logical way. (think fooled by randomness)

I cannot tell you the number of people that have gone dusted following analytical approaches that backtest out well but then in real time fall apart. It’s really the black swan of using analytics to trade. You can take any data set of numbers and find patterns in it related to external events. They are always going to be there just by nature of probability theory.

The great book that discusses this in some detail is “Fooled by Randomness”

You can get it on Amazon:   http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001FA0W5W/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?ie=UTF8&btkr=1

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001FA0W5W/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?ie=UTF8&btkr=1

It should be required reading for traders, handicappers and poker players.

Saying that there are variables that do make sense, that are logical, and are prognostic to a degree in disclosing bias in the markets. But remember that’s all they do…they disclose a bias. Then it is up to you to turn that into an edge using your trading techniques that incorporate solid money management.

The best trades over the years I have found to be mean reversion trading. They have a high % win rate. Also, they have a good ROI. The downside is once in awhile your going to get tagged for a big loss.  But you can diminish that risk by the use of various filters for these trades. The 200 day MA is one filter. Nasdaq leading the SP500 on a weekly basis is another. There are more but the purpose of this post is just to get you thinking. As no matter how you dice things up there is no method that is good enough that you can shut down your thinking process!!! If you do not remember anything else about this post early on a Monday morning it’s that last sentence.

So let me repeat it one more time “No matter how you dice things up there is no method that is good enough that you can shut down your thinking process!!!”

Ok, enough rambling. I am still in short term trade mode as my expectations are a dip this week but then new highs before there will be any serious rollover. That is going to be my working assumption this week in my trading.

By the way, my private twitter feed is now free for the time being at @rickjswings. Your welcome to follow along.

Now I am inundated daily on what to do about baseball this season regarding subscriptions. The suggestions are very good and thoughtful with just a few that are a bit “out there”. I have given it a lot of thought and will post what I am 95% going to do come April 1st.  I will post that later this morning so no one will be left in limbo with subscription renewals coming due.

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ

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